759
WTNT34 KNHC 132048
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
400 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 79.0W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA
CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.
THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA CASTILLA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO PUERTO CABEZAS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SLOW AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...HIGH...90 PERCENT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO
HEADER WTNT44 KNHC AND ON THE WEB AT
HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT4.SHTML
RAINFALL: THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS AROUND 30 INCHES AREA EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE SIERRA LA ESPERANZA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN
GUATEMALA, AND WESTERN NICARAGUA, POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
NINETEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS AROUND 15 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT, ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF MUDSLIDES.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY.
STORM SURGE: STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. NEAR
THE COAST,THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM EST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM EST.
FORECASTER KELLY
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