741
AXNT20 KNHC 140556
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.0N 81.2W
AT 14/0600 UTC OR 130 NM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON
BORDER, MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT. A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR
TWO, TAKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND MEANDER NEAR THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING, IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS
AROUND 30 INCHES AREA EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS
RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF LIFE-THREATENING AND
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NEAR THE SIERRA LA ESPERANZA. STORM SURGE COULD RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST,THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NINETEEN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA: PERSISTENT
SW FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE PRESENT MODERATE SW
FLOW OFFSHORE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR IN COSTA RICA AND IN WESTERN
PANAMA. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER'S INTERNATIONAL DESK TEAM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER AGENCY FOR DETAILS.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS AND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77.5W. ONGOING ROUGH
SEAS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT
REACHES FROM 25N55W TO NEAR THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
EARLY THU WITH THE FRONT EXITING THU NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF 25N WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS THROUGH EARLY SUN, REACHING GALE FORCE NORTH OF 29N
BETWEEN 70W AND 77W FRI EVENING AND SPREADING EAST TO 60W INTO
EARLY SAT. ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, DECAYING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 0713W AND CONTINUES
WESTWARD TO NEAR 07N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N16W TO 03N40W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO WESTERN CUBA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE
WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH W TO
NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ONGOING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM E OF THE TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BY
EARLY THU, SAGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE, POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN IS IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16.1N 80.2W AT 10 PM EST, AND IS MOVING WEST AT
8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT, AND
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. NINETEEN WILL MOVE TO
16.1N 82.1W THU MORNING, 16.2N 83.8W THU EVENING AS IT BECOMES A
TROPICAL STORM, MOVE TO 16.3N 84.7W FRI MORNING, 16.2N 85.1W FRI
EVENING, 16.0N 85.1W SAT MORNING, AND 15.9N 85.1W SAT EVENING.
NINETEEN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 16.6N
86.6W LATE SUN, 19.3N 89.1W OVER THE YUCATAN MON NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN.
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE FRESH NE WINDS IN THE LEE OF
EAST-CENTRAL CUBA, AND MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN.
SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT IS OVER EASTERN CUBA.
FOR THE FORECAST, POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WILL MOVE
TO 16.1N 82.1W THU MORNING, 16.2N 83.8W THU EVENING AS IT BECOMES
A TROPICAL STORM, MOVE TO 16.3N 84.7W FRI MORNING, 16.2N 85.1W FRI
EVENING, 16.0N 85.1W SAT MORNING, AND 15.9N 85.1W SAT EVENING.
NINETEEN WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 16.6N
86.6W LATE SUN, 19.3N 89.1W OVER THE YUCATAN MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHER SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT IN
ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A
PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT WILL LEAD TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1038 MB IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA,
WITH THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG N
TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WHILE FRESH
TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED N OF 26N AND E OF
THE FRONT TO ABOUT 48W. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS E OF THE FRONT. A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
GENERALLY NORTH OF 18N AND WEST OF 44W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN
NW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N55W TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS AND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77.5W. ONGOING ROUGH SEAS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT REACHES
FROM 25N55W TO NEAR THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY
THU WITH THE FRONT EXITING THU NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF 25N WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS THROUGH EARLY SUN, REACHING GALE FORCE NORTH OF 29N
BETWEEN 70W AND 77W FRI EVENING AND SPREADING EAST TO 60W INTO
EARLY SAT. ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, DECAYING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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