493
WTNT44 KNHC 140848
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
400 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS GRADUALLY BEEN
IMPROVING. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE BOTH T-2.0/30 KT. BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY DATA FROM THE INDIAN OCEANSAT SCATTEROMETER, WHICH
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER, JUST SOUTH OF
DUE WEST, OR 265/14 KT, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BEGIN SLOWING DOWN LATER
TODAY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP IT ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL
FRIDAY, TAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS,
AND POSSIBLY INLAND. AFTER THAT, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN, AND THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MEANDER IN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS EXPECTED
SLOW MOTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
SAME REGION, LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, RIDGING SHOULD BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FIRST 3 DAYS
OF THE TRACK FORECAST. BEYOND DAY 3, THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS A BIT
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND DAY 3, BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS
THE BULK OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER, WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH
LAND INTERACTION WITH HONDURAS OCCURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE CENTER MOVE JUST BARELY INLAND OVER HONDURAS, OR
PARKING IT RIGHT ON THE COASTLINE, BETWEEN HOUR 48 AND 72. HOWEVER,
IF THE SYSTEM STAYS OFFSHORE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST HWRF MODEL
SOLUTION, IT COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 H, BUT
THEN IS ABOUT 5 KT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE THIS
FORECAST SHOWS A BIT MORE LAND INTERACTION BEYOND 36 H. THE LATEST
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE BEYOND 36 H.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT,
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA, PARTICULARLY HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN
GUATEMALA, AND WESTERN NICARAGUA.
2. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN
IT MOVES NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA.
3. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHERE THERE IS A RISK OF DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES
AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE.
4. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS THE SYSTEM COULD BRING
TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, INCLUDING FLORIDA, THE
FLORIDA KEYS, AND CUBA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REGULARLY MONITOR UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 15.9N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.9N 83.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 16/1800Z 15.9N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 17/0600Z 15.9N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z 17.1N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 19/0600Z 20.4N 89.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
FORECASTER HAGEN
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