520
AXNT20 KNHC 141754
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC THU NOV 14 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1755 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SARA: IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 82.9W AT 14/1800 UTC
OR 180 NM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS, MOVING W AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE AROUND 8 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 100 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF NINETEEN, WITH
SIMILAR CONVECTION IN OUTER BANDS BETWEEN 100 NM AND 240 NM IN
THE N QUADRANT, 300 NM IN THE W QUADRANT. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY, BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE, IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER. THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS AROUND 30 INCHES AREA EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
HONDURAS. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF LIFE-
THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE SIERRA LA ESPERANZA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR,
EASTERN GUATEMALA, AND WESTERN NICARAGUA, TROPICAL STORM SARA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS
AROUND 15 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF MUDSLIDES.PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
NINETEEN NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO 22N62W TO JUST NORTH OF THE
MONA PASSAGE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT EXTENDS TO THE
EASTERN END OF CUBA. THEN THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE TO NEAR ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. VERY LARGE N SWELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 21N55W
TO NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE TOMORROW MORNING, WHILE WEAKENING. A
SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF 25N WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH EARLY
SUN, REACHING GALE FORCE NORTH OF 29N EAST OF 75W FRI EVENING
AND SAT MORNING. VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DECAYING EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE AT 07N13W AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 06N17W TO 04N25W TO 06N39W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 15W AND THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM
02N TO 08N BETWEEN 21W AND 26W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM SARA.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA TO NEAR
CANCUN, MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED ALONG
THIS TROUGH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN US
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT EAST OF THE TROUGH, HIGHEST IN AND
NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
NW AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS REACHING FROM PENSACOLA,
FLORIDA TO N OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. FRESH N WINDS ARE BEHIND THE
FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
ELSEWHERE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SOUTH OF 20.5N AND
EAST OF 92.5W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MERGE WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT LATER TODAY, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF
COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS
NEAR 15.7N 82.6W AT 10 AM EST, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 12 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. NINETEEN WILL STRENGTHEN TO
A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15.7N 83.7W THIS
EVENING, MOVE TO 15.9N 84.9W FRI MORNING, 15.9N 85.4W FRI
EVENING, 15.9N 85.8W SAT MORNING, 16.0N 86.2W SAT EVENING, AND
16.2N 87.0W SUN MORNING. NINETEEN WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 18.0N
89.6W EARLY MON. INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NINETEEN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM SARA.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA TO THE LEE OF CUBA AND EAST
OF 85W. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW WINDS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 4 TO 8
FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT 3
TO 5 FT SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. OTHER THAN THE
CONVECTION DESCRIBED WITH NINETEEN ABOVE, A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
TO NEAR THE COAST OF JAMAICA, AHEAD OF AN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS NOTED NEAR THE A-B-C ISLANDS AND OFFSHORE
NW VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS NEAR 15.7N
82.6W AT 10 AM EST, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. NINETEEN WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 15.7N 83.7W THIS EVENING, MOVE TO 15.9N
84.9W FRI MORNING, 15.9N 85.4W FRI EVENING, 15.9N 85.8W SAT
MORNING, 16.0N 86.2W SAT EVENING, AND 16.2N 87.0W SUN MORNING.
NINETEEN WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHILE MOVING
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 18.0N 89.6W EARLY MON.
BEGINNING TOMORROW AND EXTENDING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, LARGE
N SWELL SHOULD PREVAIL WITHIN THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE ONGOING VERY LARGE SWELL OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND THE UPCOMING GALE WARNING.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO 22N62W TO JUST NORTH OF THE
MONA PASSAGE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT EXTENDS TO THE
EASTERN END OF CUBA. THEN THE STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO
DISSIPATE TO ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 200 NM E AND SE OF THE FRONT TO
THE EAST OF 57W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FOR WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION,
PARTICULARLY, N OF 25.5 BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS COVERS THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE
AN AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS IS NORTH OF 29.5N AND
EAST OF THE FRONT. ROUGH SEAS COVER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD SE TO S. VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 57W AND 69W.
OTHER THAN THE COLD FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE, MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE MAINLY
6 TO 9 FT IN MAINLY NW TO N SWELL EAST OF THE FRONT, EXCEPT 4 TO
6 FT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL
AHEAD AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N55W TO JUST
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN CUBA. VERY LARGE N SWELL BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 21N55W
TO NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE TOMORROW MORNING, WHILE WEAKENING. A
SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF 25N WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH EARLY
SUN, REACHING GALE FORCE NORTH OF 29N EAST OF 75W FRI EVENING
AND SAT MORNING. VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DECAYING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KRV
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