459
WTNT44 KNHC 142044
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
400 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AFTER THE
RELEASE OF THE 1500 UTC ADVISORY. A COUPLE OF AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT HAVE FLEW THROUGH THE SYSTEM EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON REPORTED DROPSONDE DATA THAT SUPPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT.
THESE DATA SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE OF THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM
SARA ON THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE LATEST DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ALSO SUPPORT
35 KT, THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS AT THAT
VALUE.
THE FORWARD SPEED OF SARA IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS EXPECTED.
THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT. SARA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO
THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE, HOWEVER A CONTINUED
DECELERATION OF SARA'S FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY, THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE SARA TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHEN IT APPROACHES
BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOST OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE, AND THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE NEW TRACK CONTINUES TO
BE ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS AND IT IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR IS
THE SPRAWLING STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
LAND. GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS, ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS SUGGESTED
BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOW BY LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A MORE NORTHERN TRACK, COULD
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING, BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS AND MOST
OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR THAT SCENARIO. THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKENING QUICKLY WHILE IT
MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT
LIKELY TO SURVIVE THE PASSAGE OVER THE PENINSULA. THEREFORE, THE
NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY DAY 5.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SARA WILL CAUSE
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN HONDURAS.
2. ELSEWHERE ACROSS BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA,
WESTERN NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES.
3. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS, AND THE ADJACENT BAY ISLANDS WHERE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
4. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WHERE THERE IS A RISK OF
STRONG WINDS. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 16.1N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.3N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
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