971
WTNT44 KNHC 150845
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
300 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
THERE HASN’T BEEN MUCH OBSERVATIONAL DATA NEAR THE CENTER OF SARA
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING ASIDE FROM THE 1-MINUTE GOES-16
DATA, WHICH SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BELIZE RADAR HAS PROVIDED
SOME INFORMATION, BUT THE CENTER IS STILL JUST BEYOND THE RANGE OF
THIS RADAR, AND THERE AREN'T ANY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE
CENTER EITHER. FINDING THE CENTER HAS BEEN CHALLENGING OVERNIGHT.
RECENT GOES-16 IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED MID-LEVEL ROTATION OVER WATER
ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION, BUT THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF ANY LOW-LEVEL CENTER RE-FORMATION AT THIS TIME. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT
40 KT.
SARA IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/8 KT. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NW OF SARA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
CAUSE SARA TO SLOW DOWN TODAY. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING
FOR SARA TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS BEFORE APPROACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE EARLY
SUNDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK, AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS MOSTLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING, SARA'S RELATIVELY BROAD STRUCTURE AND PROXIMITY TO
LAND ARE LIKELY TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS THEN FORECAST WHILE THE
SYSTEM IS FARTHER OFFSHORE BEFORE IT APPROACHES BELIZE. THE BULK
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. AFTER SARA MOVES INLAND OVER BELIZE ON SUNDAY, IT SHOULD
QUICKLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE NHC
FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BEYOND 72 HOURS, AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT SARA
IS UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE ITS TREK ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, SOME
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM SARA'S REMNANTS SHOULD MERGE WITH
AN ELONGATED TROUGH OR FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS, NO
TROPICAL REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SARA WILL CAUSE
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS.
2. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR,
EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF
QUINTANA ROO, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
3. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS, AND THE ADJACENT BAY ISLANDS WHERE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
4. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND WHERE THERE IS A RISK OF
STRONG WINDS. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 16.0N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 16.0N 85.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 16.0N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 16.2N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 16.5N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.0N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0600Z 17.9N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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