209
WTNT34 KNHC 151159
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
600 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..SARA NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS
...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WESTWARD FROM PUNTA SAL TO THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA WESTWARD TO PUNTA BARRIOS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER WESTWARD TO PUERTO BARRIOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE, AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE
LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. SARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A CONTINUED WESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SARA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, THEN
APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE EARLY SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (80 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IF THE CENTER OF SARA REMAINS OVER WATER TO THE
NORTH OF HONDURAS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM SARA CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT4 AND WMO HEADER
WTNT44 KNHC AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT4.SHTML
RAINFALL: THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS AROUND 30 INCHES AREA EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE SIERRA LA ESPERANZA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN
GUATEMALA, WESTERN NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO,
SARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED
TOTALS AROUND 15 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF MUDSLIDES.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM SARA, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/REFRESH/GRAPHICS_AT4+SHTML/205755.SHTML?
RAINQPF#CONTENTS
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
STORM SURGE: STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA.
NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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