837
WTNT44 KNHC 151451
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
900 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SINCE THE PRIOR ADVISORY, SARA HAS BECOME MODESTLY BETTER ORGANIZED,
WITH AN EARLIER AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING SOME IMPROVED
STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. THE LATEST SET OF
COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SARA'S CENTER MIGHT HAVE
REFORMED JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, BETWEEN THE BAY ISLANDS AND THE
NORTHERN MAINLAND OF HONDURAS. WITH THE IMPROVEMENT ON MICROWAVE AND
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
ARE A BIT HIGHER THIS MORNING, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS NUDGED
UP TO 45 KT AT 12 UTC, AND REMAINS AT THAT VALUE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
SARA DOES APPEAR TO BE SLOWING DOWN, BUT STILL MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD, ESTIMATED AT 270/4 KT. A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DRAPED
NORTHWESTWARD OF SARA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM TO A CRAWL LATER TODAY. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE IS THEN
FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY, AND SARA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO RESUME A SOMEWHAT FASTER WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN IT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ON SATURDAY AND INTO BELIZE ON SUNDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
THIS CYCLE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY, AND THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
SARA'S FUTURE INTENSITY PRIOR TO MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN WILL
LARGELY BE GOVERNED BY IF AND HOW FAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST DOES KEEP SARA
OFFSHORE JUST FAR ENOUGH THAT IT COULD INTENSIFY A BIT MORE BEFORE
MOVING ONSHORE IN BELIZE, AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY IS A LITTLE
HIGHER, SHOWING A 50 KT PEAK BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST IS ALSO
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AFTER MOVING INTO
THE YUCATAN, SARA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN, AND WHAT REMAINS OF
THE SYSTEM WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT. ULTIMATELY, SARA IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH, THOUGH ITS REMNANT MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE ABSORBED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH SARA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, WITH PRELIMINARY REPORTS ALREADY
SUGGESTING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE NORTH COAST
AND IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN HONDURAS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM SARA
WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS.
2. ELSEWHERE ACROSS BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN
NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES.
3. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS, AND THE ADJACENT BAY ISLANDS, THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA AND BELIZE WHERE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 16.1N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 16.1N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 16.2N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 16.8N 88.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0000Z 17.6N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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