749
WTNT44 KNHC 152035
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
300 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER OF SARA, WHICH HAS BEEN MEANDERING JUST OFFSHORE BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS UNCERTAIN. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB, THOUGH THERE WAS
A RECENT PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 1430 UTC THAT DEPICTED
WINDS ONLY AROUND 30-33 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH MAY BE
GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
HELP BETTER DETERMINE THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.
SARA'S FORWARD MOTION HAS BECOME SLUGGISH TODAY WITH A SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION, ESTIMATED AT 270/2 KT. THIS SLOW MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 H. AFTERWARDS, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH HAS BEEN STEERING SARA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AND
SARA IS THEN EXPECTED TO RESUME A SOMEWHAT FASTER WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER THIS WEEKEND. ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF SARA IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ON SATURDAY AND INTO BELIZE ON SUNDAY. THE NHC FORECAST
TRACK IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS, WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION IN
THE NEAR TERM.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE LAND INTERACTION
WITH CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MODEL TRENDS AND THE TRACK FORECAST KEEP
THE SYSTEM'S CENTER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH LANDFALL IN BELIZE, THUS
THE LATEST NHC SHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST SHOWS
THE SYSTEM AS A REMNANT LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, HOWEVER IT IS
POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOONER
THAN FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH SARA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, WITH PRELIMINARY REPORTS ALREADY
SUGGESTING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE NORTH COAST
AND IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN HONDURAS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM SARA
WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS.
2. ELSEWHERE ACROSS BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN
NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES.
3. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS, THE BAY ISLANDS, THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA, THE COAST OF BELIZE AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
WHERE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 16.2N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 16.2N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.4N 86.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.2N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 18.3N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1800Z 19.9N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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