528
AXNT20 KNHC 152336
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 86.3W AT 15/0000 UTC
OR 30 NM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS, MOVING W AT 2 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE AROUND 14 FT. CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION
OF SARA ARE AFFECTING MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN, HONDURAS, BELIZE,
EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN
STATE OF QUINTANA ROO. A CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF SARA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE APPROACHING BELIZE, AND THEN
MOVE ONSHORE IN BELIZE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AS LONG AS
THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS AROUND 35
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS RAINFALL WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY
CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NEAR THE SIERRA LA ESPERANZA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF
HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN
NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO, TROPICAL STORM
SARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED
TOTALS AROUND 15 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.
NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES. A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF SARA CROSSES THE COAST OF BELIZE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SARA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 992 MB EXTRATROPICAL LOW LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR
33N72W TO 31N72W TO SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THESE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W BY
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, GALE-FORCE NW
WINDS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE S OF 31N THIS EVENING, AND
SHIFT AS FAR SOUTH AS 28N LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, THEN
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF 31N BY SAT EVENING AS THE LOW AND COLD
FRONT PROGRESS EASTWARD. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 20 FT ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE GALE-FORCE WINDS. SOUTHERLY GALES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN A NARROW 90 NM WIDE BAND EAST OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. BY SAT MORNING, THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY SUN MORNING,
THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N55W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO, BUT WITH
ONLY FRESH WINDS N OF 29N BY THEN. VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 10 FT AND
GREATER IN NORTHERLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, REACHING AS FAR SOUTH OF 21N IN SUN, BEFORE FADING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EQUATORIAL AFRICA. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N16W TO 05N40W TO 10N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 15W
AND 42W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE, AND ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FORT MEYERS,
THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N
TO NE WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT 2 TO
3 FT IN THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED NE TO E AT GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEED, WITH 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM SARA IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E WINDS OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT,
WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN SAT NIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG OFFSHORE OF TEXAS LATE SUN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ROUGH SEAS IN SE SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD, TROPICAL STORM SARA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A REMNANT LOW. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SARA.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN WEST OF 80W IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM SARA AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. ASIDE FROM SARA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE FOUND
EAST OF 75W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS WEST OF 75W.
SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS EAST OF 75W, EXCEPT 6 TO 7 FT THROUGH THE
NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ALONG THE
NORTH COASTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, FROM PUERTO RICO TO EASTERN
CUBA, AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO BEFORE APPROACHING BELIZE, AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE IN BELIZE
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AWAY FROM THE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
SARA, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LARGE N SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON
SUN THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA, CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE ONGOING SWELL EVENT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
AN UPCOMING GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N46W TO 19N58W THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTH COASTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, FROM
PUERTO RICO TO EASTERN CUBA. A BAND OF SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 24N
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 42W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS OF 8
TO 12 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF
THE FRONT NEAR 25N60W, PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT AND AWAY FROM THE NEW FRONT
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
INFORMATION. FARTHER E, OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N23W THEN
BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH TO 28N34W. SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN NE
SWELL ARE NORTH OF THIS THIRD FRONT. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL MEANDER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LARGE N SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS BEFORE SUBSIDING
INTO EARLY SAT. THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS. PLEASE,
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ROUGH SEAS
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH MAY CLIP THE NE WATERS TUE
AND TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
GR
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