268
WTNT44 KNHC 160233
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
900 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SARA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL
NORTH OF THE CENTER, ALONG WITH A TIGHTER CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM HASN'T
CHANGED MUCH IN SATELLITE REPRESENTATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY AT 45 KT, CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE ESTIMATES.
THE STORM HAS BASICALLY STOPPED MOVING TONIGHT AND IS ONLY FORECAST
TO CREEP WESTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF SARA LATER ON
SATURDAY, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. SARA IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO BELIZE ON SUNDAY, WITH THE ONLY TRACK FORECAST CHANGE
BEING A SLIGHT SLOWDOWN, CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE AIDS.
WHILE SARA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR
THROUGH SUNDAY, NONE OF THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW ANY
INTENSIFICATION, SEEMINGLY DUE TO THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE WIND
FIELD AND PERHAPS LAND INTERACTION. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE, AND THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH LANDFALL. ALMOST ALL OF THE AIDS SHOW THE SYSTEM DECAYING
INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE GUIDANCE
AND THE NHC FORECAST FOR THE LAST FEW CYCLES.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH SARA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, WITH PRELIMINARY REPORTS ALREADY
SUGGESTING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE NORTH COAST
AND IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN HONDURAS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM SARA
WILL CAUSE CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS.
2. ELSEWHERE ACROSS BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN
NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES.
3. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS, THE BAY ISLANDS, THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA, THE COAST OF BELIZE, AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
WHERE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 16.2N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.3N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 16.6N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.0N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 17.7N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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