941
AXNT20 KNHC 160553
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 86.3W AT 16/0600 UTC
OR 30 NM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS, STATIONARY. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
AROUND 16 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF SARA IS AFFECTING MOST OF THE
NW CARIBBEAN, HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA,
FAR NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA
ROO. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER
ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SARA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE APPROACHING BELIZE, AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE IN
BELIZE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL ON SUNDAY. THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM
TOTALS AROUND 35 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS
RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF LIFE-THREATENING AND
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NEAR THE SIERRA LA ESPERANZA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST
OF HONDURAS, BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN
NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO, TROPICAL STORM
SARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALIZED
TOTALS AROUND 15 INCHES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES. STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HONDURAS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF SARA CROSSES THE COAST OF BELIZE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SARA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A HURRICANE FORCE LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR
33N70W THROUGH 31N69W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS HAS GALE FORCE
WINDS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N61W TO 20N72.5W SAT EVENING, THEN FROM 25N55W TO THE
ANEGADA PASSAGE SUN EVENING WHILE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. VERY
ROUGH SEAS ARE FOLLOWING THIS FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH VERY HIGH SEAS POSSIBLE N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND
75W ON SAT AND SAT NIGHT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, GALE-FORCE NW WINDS TO
40 KT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS 28N LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SAT MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF 31N BY SAT
EVENING AS THE LOW AND COLD FRONT PROGRESS EASTWARD. SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 20 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE GALE-FORCE WINDS.
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN A NARROW 90 NM WIDE
BAND EAST OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING.
BY SAT MORNING, THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY SUN MORNING, THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N55W
TO NEAR PUERTO RICO, BUT WITH ONLY FRESH WINDS N OF 29N BY THEN.
VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 10 FT AND GREATER IN NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
FOLLOW THIS FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REACHING AS FAR SOUTH OF
21N IN SUN, BEFORE FADING EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EQUATORIAL AFRICA, ENTERING THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N13W. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM 07N14W TO 08N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N
TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 42W.
..GULF OF MEXICO
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF. IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
23N90W, WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THEN RUNNING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INLAND OVER MEXICO. MODERATE TO
FRESH E WINDS ARE OBSERVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONTS, WHILE
GENTLE TO MODERATE E WINDS ARE NORTH AND WEST. SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT
ARE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF, LOCALLY UP TO 6 FT IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST,
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SARA.
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN WEST OF 77W IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM SARA AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. ASIDE FROM SARA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE FOUND
EAST OF 77W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS WEST OF 77W.
SEAS OF 1 TO 4 FT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN EAST
OF 77W, EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF 4 TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ALONG THE NORTH
COASTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTH COASTS OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST,
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE ONGOING SWELL EVENT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
A GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N46W TO 19N59W THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTH COASTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, FROM
PUERTO RICO TO EASTERN CUBA. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 20N
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 43W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 10 FT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS
OF 8 TO 12 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. FARTHER E, OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC, ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 23N16W TO 23N23W, THEN BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH TO 28N30W.
SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL ARE NORTH OF THIS THIRD FRONT.
SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AWAY FROM THESE FEATURES, ALONG WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W,
ADAMS
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