241
WTNT44 KNHC 160839
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
300 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF SARA IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE COAST OF MAINLAND HONDURAS AND
THE BAY ISLANDS. COMPARED TO 24 H AGO, THE STORM HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED WITH A DECREASE IN THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE
ASCAT DATA SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35-40 KT IN AN AREA OF
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER, AND BASED ON
THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.
THE CYCLONE REMAINS STATIONARY. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF SARA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER
OVER BELIZE BETWEEN THE 24-36 H POINTS. AFTER LANDFALL, SARA OR
ITS REMNANTS SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
STRENGTH SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE SARA MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW A LITTLE STRENGTHENING AT 24 H WHEN
THE SYSTEM HAS THE MOST ROOM OVER WATER. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTER LANDFALL, AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
IT SHOULD DECAY TO A OPEN TROUGH BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE OR THE GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 60 H. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANTS OF SARA COULD
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO FORM A NON-TROPICAL LOW NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE EARLY OR MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH SARA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, WITH PRELIMINARY REPORTS ALREADY
SUGGESTING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE NORTH COAST
AND IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN HONDURAS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM SARA
WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS.
2. ELSEWHERE ACROSS BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN
NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES.
3. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS, THE BAY ISLANDS, THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA, THE COAST OF BELIZE, AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
WHERE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 16.1N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.3N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.7N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.3N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page