242
AXNT20 KNHC 162345
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 87.0W AT 16/2100 UTC
OR 20 NM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS, MOVING W AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
15 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 76W. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF SARA WILL APPROACH BELIZE TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE
OVER BELIZE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL IN BELIZE ON SUNDAY, WITH
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. SARA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP
INTO A TROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST SARA
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE ALSO REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING AND A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A STRONG COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 992 MB LOW JUST NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N62W TO
31N60W TO 24N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 64W AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE
FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N57W TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. VERY ROUGH
SEAS TO 17 FT ARE AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N13W TO 06N28W TO 05N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 12N BETWEEN 19W AND 37W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS
NEAR 22N90W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. FRESH NE TO E WINDS
ARE OVER THE SE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT TAIL ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 95W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ONGOING W OF 95W WITH SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NE WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN BY
EARLY SUN, THEN LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE
TEXAS COAST THROUGH MON. THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
BY EARLY TUE, REACHING FROM APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPICO, MEXICO
EARLY WED, WITH REINFORCING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
LARGE SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN WED NIGHT. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM
SARA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN, DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY MON AFTERNOON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM SARA.
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS NEAR 16.4N 87.0W AT 4 PM EST, AND IS
MOVING WEST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. OVER
THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE AND SEAS ARE SLIGHT, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE E WINDS IN THE SE
CARIBBEAN, MODERATE NE WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND MODERATE
SEAS IN N SWELL IN THE MONA PASSAGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, SARA WILL MOVE TO 16.5N 87.5W SUN MORNING, MOVE
INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR 17.1N 88.9W SUN
AFTERNOON, BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 18.5N 90.7W MON
MORNING, AND DISSIPATE MON AFTERNOON. AWAY FROM THE DIRECT IMPACTS
FROM SARA, FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. LARGE N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT TO ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO
STRONG E TO NE WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON SUN THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
PASSAGES AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY MID-
WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A GALE WARNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT IN THE WEST SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GALE WARNING, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
SUBTROPICS NEAR 31N46W SW TO 21N52W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE
TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS,
MODERATE SEAS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 30W
AND 45W WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT.
OVER THE FAR EASTERN SUBTROPICAL WATERS, A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NW AFRICA TO 23N23W. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTING 8-9 FT IN NE SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE GALE FORCE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
WHILE THE FRONT REACHES FROM 31N57W TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SUN
WHILE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY. VERY ROUGH SEAS FOLLOWING THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH VERY HIGH SEAS
POSSIBLE N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W TONIGHT. A REINFORCING FRONT
OR TROUGH MAY CLIP THE NE WATERS ON TUE WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED
STATES MID-WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS.
RAMOS
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