467
WTNT44 KNHC 170831
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM SARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
300 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
THE CENTER OF SARA IS NEARING THE COAST OF BELIZE. SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS
RAGGED WITH PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 25 TO ABOUT 40 KT, AND BASED ON THAT DATA, THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT.
THE STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 4 KT. A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF SARA TO THE BELIZE COAST LATE
THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH A 24-HOUR FORECAST POINT
IS PROVIDED, MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW SARA OPENING INTO A TROUGH
BY THEN OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SARA
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY IN STRENGTH UNTIL IT REACHES THE COAST,
BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
SARA HAS PRODUCED A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF RAIN IN HONDURAS. DATA
FROM THE COUNTRY'S GOVERNMENT INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REPORTS OF AROUND 40 INCHES OF RAIN. THESE HEAVY RAINS ARE NOW
SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE, GUATEMALA, AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM SARA
WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS.
2. ELSEWHERE ACROSS BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN
NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES.
3. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HONDURAS, THE BAY ISLANDS, THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA, THE
COAST OF BELIZE, AND PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO WHERE TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 16.8N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 17.3N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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