544
AXNT20 KNHC 171005
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0740 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM SARA: IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 87.8W AT 17/0900 UTC
OR 50 NM SSE OF BELIZE CITY, MOVING WNW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE AROUND 13 FT. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FOUND WITHIN 150 NM
OF THE CENTER OF SARA. SIMILAR CONVECTION CONVERGING OFFSHORE NEAR
THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IS FROM 14N TO 17.5N BETWEEN
81W AND 84W. SARA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SARA WILL
MAKE LANDFALL IN BELIZE LATE THIS MORNING OR AROUND MIDDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER THE STORM MOVES INLAND, AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT OR
MON. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM
SARA WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN NICARAGUA, AND THE
MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST SARA
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N58W TO 22N64W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74W. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA THAT HAD HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
YESTERDAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND GALE FORCE OVER OUR AREA GENERATED
VERY LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL, AND REMNANTS OF THAT SWELL WITH SEAS
OF 8 FT OR GREATER ARE NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE FRONT. SEAS OF 12
FT OR GREATER ARE NORTH OF 23N WITHIN 600 NM WEST OF THE FRONT, UP
TO 18 FT NEAR 29N63W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TODAY AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 12 FT BEHIND
IT BY THIS EVENING. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT, REACHING
JUST TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 08N13W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 08N13W TO 04N22W TO 08N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 41W, WITH ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE END OF THE ITCZ
FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES DOMINATES THE
BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW, EXCEPT GENTLE TO
MODERATE IN THE SW GULF. SEAS ARE 3 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT IN
THE W-CENTRAL AND SW GULF OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO, AS WELL AS IN
THE NE GULF COASTAL WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
19N92.5W DUE TO THE TAIL END OF THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSED BY.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG FROM
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NW GULF COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MON.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT,
REACHING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO EARLY TUE,
THEN FROM APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPICO, MEXICO EARLY WED. REINFORCING
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND LARGE SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE BASIN WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SE OF THE BASIN.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM SARA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY, DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE MON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE AT 16.8N 87.8W AT
4 AM EST, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM SARA.
AWAY FROM SARA, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
NEAR THE NE TIP OF CUBA ALONG THE SE COAST OF CUBA TO NEAR
19.5N83.5W. THIS FRONT IS SPARKING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 210 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ALSO EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 16N69.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF ROUGHLY 15N AND WEST
OF 79W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND ANEGADA PASSAGE, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AWAY FROM
SARA, EXCEPT 6 TO 7 FT IN ATLANTIC PASSAGES DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SARA WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR
17.3N 88.8W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO
18.6N 90.6W MON MORNING, AND DISSIPATE MON AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A
COLD FRONT FROM THE SE COAST OF CUBA TO ALONG 19.5N HAS FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE WHILE WEAKENING
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG PULSING
WINDS ACROSS THE APPROACHES TO ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND IN THE LEE OF
CUBA THROUGH EARLY TUE. LARGE N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TO
ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY MON. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MAY SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY MID-WEEK
WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT, REACHING
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS LATE THU.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IN THE ATLANTIC BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THAT COLD FRONT FROM 31N58W TO JUST N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE HAS
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITHIN 60-180 NM AHEAD OF IT, ALONG WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180-300 NM AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH INCLUDING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. FRESH TO AT LEAST STRONG
WINDS ARE IN THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS
WELL NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 53W AND 67W WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELATED TO PARENT LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA REMAINS THE
TIGHTEST. TO THE EAST, AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
31N45.5W TO 23N49.5W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS WITHIN 180 NM
AHEAD OF IT. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO 21N35W. ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS ARE
NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W, ALONG WITH 7 TO 10 FT SEAS IN
NORTHERLY SWELL. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE EAST OF 35W. MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 17N AND WEST OF
30W. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 24N55W TO
NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE EARLY MON, DISSIPATING OVER THE SE
WATERS THEREAFTER. VERY ROUGH SEAS IS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING FRONT OR
TROUGH MAY CLIP THE NE WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT, WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE
SE UNITED STATES WED NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS. THAT FRONT MAY REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE THU.
LEWITSKY
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