863
AXNT20 KNHC 171745
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1805 UTC SUN NOV 17 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1720 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 89.0W AT 17/1800
UTC OR 50 NM W OF BELIZE CITY, MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
AROUND 12 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
BELIZE, HONDURAS, AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TURN NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
SARA WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY
BEFORE IT OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH BY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. WEAKENING
IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES FURTHER INLAND, AND SARA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE IT OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT OR ON
MONDAY. THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
TROPICAL STORM SARA WILL CAUSE POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN
NICARAGUA, AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST SARA
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
31N54W TO 20N70W ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 19N75W. SIGNIFICANT SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT
IS DIMINISHING, BUT SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER IN WESTERLY SWELL
PERSISTS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. SWELL PERIOD IS 12-14
SECONDS. ELSEWHERE, SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT IN SIMILAR W TO NW
SWELL ARE NORTH OF A LINE FROM 31N54W TO 20N68W TO 27N77W TO
31N73W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT THIS EVENING. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE
- HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 08N13W TO 03N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES DOMINATES THE
BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW. SEAS ARE 3-6 FT,
WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE NW GULF AND SE GULF, INCLUDING WITHIN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG FROM
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NW GULF COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MON.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT,
REACHING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO EARLY TUE,
THEN FROM APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPICO, MEXICO EARLY WED. REINFORCING
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND LARGE SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE BASIN WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SE OF THE BASIN.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL STORM SARA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY, DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE MON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA.
AWAY FROM SARA, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HAITI JUST
SOUTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. FRESH NE TO
E WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FRONT, INCLUDING WITHIN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AS CAPTURED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN, E WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG AND SEAS ARE 5-8 FT.
ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND SEAS ARE 3-5 FT, EXCEPT
5-7 FT IN ATLANTIC PASSAGES DUE TO ARRIVING NORTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SARA WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR 17.8N 89.6W THIS
EVENING, BECOME A REMNANT LOW AND MOVE TO 19.5N 91.5W MON MORNING,
AND DISSIPATE MON EVENING. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT FROM THE SE
COAST OF CUBA TO ALONG 19N HAS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG PULSING WINDS ACROSS THE APPROACHES
TO ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA THROUGH EARLY TUE.
LARGE N SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TO ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY SLIP
SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY MID-WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT, REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN
HONDURAS LATE THU.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION
ON A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W
AND 60W. 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. SEAS ARE LOCALLY 8
FT NEAR 12N50W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
24N55W TO NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE EARLY MON, DISSIPATING OVER THE
SE WATERS THEREAFTER. VERY ROUGH SEAS IS FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING FRONT OR
TROUGH MAY CLIP THE NE WATERS ON TUE, WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED
STATES WED NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE THU.
MAHONEY
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