091
AXNT20 KNHC 172340
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0005 UTC MON NOV 18 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 89.5W AT 17/2100
UTC OR 140 NM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO, MOVING WNW AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
AROUND 10-11 FT. NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS ARE OCCURING INLAND OVER
GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF SARA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEFORE IT OPENS UP
INTO A TROUGH EITHER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. FURTHER WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED, AND SARA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN UP
INTO A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST SARA
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N12W TO 04N27W TO 05N37W TO 03N45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 10W AND 21W, AND
FROM 01N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 45W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO
SE RETURN FLOW, EXCEPT FOR STRONG E WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS AND STRONG SE WINDS OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS ADJACENT WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-8 FT IN BOTH THE SE AND
NW GULF AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA ARE
AFFECTING THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG FROM
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NW GULF COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MON.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT,
REACHING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO EARLY TUE,
THEN FROM APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPICO, MEXICO EARLY WED. REINFORCING
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND LARGE SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE BASIN WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SE OF THE BASIN.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT, BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER OR NEAR THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE MON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
17.8N 89.5W AT 4 PM EST, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT, AND THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SARA CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NICARAGUA. MEANWHILE,
THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO SW HAITI
WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH NE WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN ADJACENT
WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SEAS IN LA MONA PASSAGE DUE TO LARGE NORTHERLY
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SARA WILL MOVE INLAND TO 18.9N 91.1W MON
MORNING, AND DISSIPATE MON AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SE WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH FRESH
TO STRONG PULSING WINDS ACROSS THE APPROACHES TO ATLANTIC PASSAGES
AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA THROUGH EARLY TUE. LARGE N SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TO ROUGH SEAS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES
THROUGH EARLY MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY SLIP SE OF THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL BY MID-WEEK WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
BEHIND IT, REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS LATE
THU.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N50W SW TO NE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ONGOING WITHIN 360 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO W WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
TO 12 FT FOLLOWING THE FRONT ARE AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF 29N
BETWEEN 55W AND 68W WHILE LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT REACHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. FRESH TO
STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N ALONG WITH
ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT REACHING AS FAR AS 45W. THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE, EXCEPT E OF 27W
WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL PREVAILS, SUPPORTING 8-9
FT SEAS. ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER THESE WATERS AS
WELL AS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
24N55W TO NEAR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE EARLY MON, DISSIPATING OVER THE
SE WATERS THEREAFTER. VERY ROUGH SEAS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH MAY CLIP
THE NE WATERS ON TUE, WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES WED NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THIS FRONT
MAY REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE THU.
RAMOS
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