051
WTNT44 KNHC 180233
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
900 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SATELLITE DATA AND RADAR IMAGES FROM SABANCUY, MEXICO, SHOW A SMALL
AREA OF CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SARA TONIGHT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SPARSE IN
THE REGION, BUT THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY STILL CLOSED GIVEN THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON AVAILABLE SURFACE
WIND DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT.
SARA IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD (300/11 KT) AND SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS HEADING OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SARA IS
EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION. SARA
SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SOON AND OPEN INTO
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. WHILE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, THE REMNANT VORTICITY AND
MOISTURE COULD INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
THIS WEEK. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER. IN ADDITION, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING, AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. ACROSS BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN NICARAGUA,
AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO, AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES.
2. THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA IS WINDING DOWN
ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS, HOWEVER THE RISK OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODING
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 18.1N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 19.3N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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