248
AXNT20 KNHC 180542
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC MON NOV 18 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 90.7W AT 18/0300
UTC OR 110 NM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO, MOVING WNW AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING INLAND OVER GUATEMALA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF SARA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND SARA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BY MONDAY MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE LATEST SARA
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES
TO 07N15W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM FROM 07N15W TO 04N24W TO
07N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
02N TO 09N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 19W, AND FROM 02N TO
11N BETWEEN 23W AND 45W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 32N79W AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE
DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW,
EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA TO
THE TEXAS COAST. SEAS ARE 5-8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF, ASIDE
FROM THE FAR NORTHEASTERN GULF WHERE SEAS ARE 2 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW AND FRESH
TO STRONG FLOW FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA TO THE
TEXAS COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON NIGHT, REACHING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO
NEAR TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO EARLY TUE, THEN FROM APALACHEE BAY TO
TAMPICO, MEXICO EARLY WED. REINFORCING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND LARGE SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE BASIN WED NIGHT AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SE OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WED.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF THE BASIN BY EARLY THU WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
OVERNIGHT WHILE TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA.
THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO, HISPANIOLA, AND JAMAICA. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO CONVERGENT SURFACE WINDS IN
THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH NE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SEAS IN THE MONA
PASSAGE DUE TO LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA WILL BECOME A REMNANT
LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19.3N 92.0W
MON MORNING, AND DISSIPATE MON EVENING. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT
FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TO SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL STALL
AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE LEE OF CUBA, WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MON NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH BY MID-WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES BY NW OF THE AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT, REACHING
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR NORTHERN NICARAGUA EARLY FRI WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND IT. MEANWHILE, SEAS OF
AROUND 8 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES WILL
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY MON.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US IS BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
31N51W SW TO PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ONGOING WITHIN 360 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO
W WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT FOLLOWING THE FRONT ARE AFFECTING
THE WATERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
WATERS ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT E OF 87W WHERE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL PREVAILS, SUPPORTING 7-10 FT SEAS
NORTH OF 28N. GENTLE TO MODERATE CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED IN THIS
REGION AS WELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A COLD FRONT FROM 25N55W TO ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE WHILE
WEAKENING THROUGH MON. ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LARGE SEAS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NE
WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT, WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES LATE WED
NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
THIS FRONT MAY REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY
EARLY FRI.
ADAMS
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