111
AXNT20 KNHC 180906
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1205 UTC MON NOV 18 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0750 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
REMNANTS OF SARA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 91.5W AT 18/0900 UTC OR
80 NM SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO, MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTH OF 19N AND
EAST OF 94.5W, AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. THE
REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT,
THE REMNANT VORTICITY AND MOISTURE COULD INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS. THE RISK OF
CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE SIERRA LA ESPERANZA. ACROSS PORTIONS
OF BELIZE, EL SALVADOR, EASTERN GUATEMALA, WESTERN NICARAGUA, AND
THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO, THE REMNANTS OF SARA ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF MUDSLIDES. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE ONGOING
RAINFALL THREAT IN SOUTHERN MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST, SEE PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND THE FINAL SARA
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 08N13W TO 04N30W TO
07N41W TO 08N52W. PLENTIFUL SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 11W AND 18W,
AND FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
REMNANTS OF SARA.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E TO
SE RETURN FLOW, EXCEPT FOR STRONG WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND PENINSULA TO THE NW GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT
ACROSS THESE WINDS, EXCEPT 8 TO 11 FT IN THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
AT THE TAIL END OF THE LONG SE FETCH REGION. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE AND MARINE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED
ABOVE WILL PERSIST TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW GULF TONIGHT, REACHING FROM S-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR
TAMAULIPAS, MEXICO EARLY TUE, THEN FROM APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPICO,
MEXICO EARLY WED. REINFORCING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
LARGE SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE BASIN WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SE OF THE BASIN BEHIND THE FRONT STARTING WED. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SE OF THE BASIN BY EARLY THU WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MEANWHILE, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF SARA,
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TODAY, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE COLD FRONT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
REMNANTS OF SARA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE REST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
19N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE IN THE LEE OF CUBA
TO ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN, ACROSS THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE, AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LIGHT TO GENTLE IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 6 TO 10 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN, 4 TO 6 FT
ELSEWHERE WHERE THE FRESH TO STRONG WIND PLUMES ARE, AND 3 FT OR
LESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT NEAR
ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANTS OF SARA, AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY WHILE
DISSIPATING. A COLD FRONT FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO SOUTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
LEE OF CUBA, WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH BY MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT, REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR NE
NICARAGUA EARLY FRI WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS BEHIND
IT. MEANWHILE, SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE
ATLANTIC PASSAGES WILL SUBSIDE TODAY.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER GEORGIA IS
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF A SLOWING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W SOUTHWEST TO
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ONGOING
WITHIN 150-210 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. REMNANT SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT
IN NW TO N SWELL ARE DECAYING, BUT A REINFORCING TROUGH JUST NOW
MOVING INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS IS BRINGING REINFORCING SWELL AS
WELL AS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NEAR 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. FRESH
TO STRONG S-SW WINDS ARE ALSO N OF 29N IN THE AREA OF CONVECTION.
TO THE EAST, A 1006 MB OCCLUDED LOW IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR
32.5N24W WITH A RELATED TROUGH FROM 29N23W TO 18N30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W
AND PUSHING SOUTH WITH THE LOW. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8 TO 11
FT SEAS ARE ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. BROAD RIDGING WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS, EXCEPT TO 8 FT NEAR 11N42W IN DECAYING, REMNANT NW TO
N SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A SLOWING COLD FRONT FROM 25N55W TO
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH
TODAY. ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE
SEAS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A
REINFORCING FRONT OR TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NE WATERS TUE AND TUE
NIGHT, WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES LATE WED NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THIS FRONT
MAY REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRI.
LEWITSKY
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