373
AXNT20 KNHC 200550
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0605 UTC WED NOV 20 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF MEXICO, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING:
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR THE LOUISIANA-FLORIDA
BORDER TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERWARD, A
1014 MB HIGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD SOUTHWARD, CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE WINDS OFFSHORE
OF VERACRUZ ARE GOING TO PEAK AT STRONG TO GALE-FORCE, WHILE SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 11 TO 15 FT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER
TO THE HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SIERRA LEONE COAST
NEAR FREETOWN, THEN EXTENDS WESTWARD TO 08N15W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 08N15W ACROSS 05N30W TO 04N40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE TROUGH FROM
03N TO 08N BETWEEN THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA COAST AND 14W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN UP TO 180 NM ALONG EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W AND 37W.
THE EASTERN END OF THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS TRIGGERING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA.
..GULF OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOUT A GALE WARNING
NEAR VERACRUZ.
AIDED BY STRONG DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT, CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ARE PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. FRESH TO STRONG SE TO
SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE NORTHEASTERN AND
EAST-CENTRAL GULF. MOSTLY GENTLE SW TO NW WINDS WITH 2 TO 4 FT
SEAS ARE NOTED AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF,
INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO NW WINDS
AND SEAS AT 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE
GULF. IN RESPONSE, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH
SEAS BEING REINFORCED BEHIND IT WILL START BY EARLY WED.
MEANWHILE, GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE VERACRUZ WED
EVENING THROUGH EARLY THUR MORNING. AFTERWARD, A HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS-MEXICO COAST SHOULD ALLOW MARINE
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL ANCHOR AT THE NORTHEASTERN GULF SUN,
WHICH WILL PROVIDE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS FOR THE
EASTERN GULF, AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH IS CAUSING PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE CENTRAL BASIN, INCLUDING WATERS BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND HAITI. CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
ARE EVIDENT AT THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS EXIST AT THE
WATERS NEAR NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
ENE TO ESE WINDS WITH SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BASIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN WED NIGHT, REACHING FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY THU MORNING, AND FROM EASTERN CUBA
TO NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS BY FRI MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW IT ACROSS THE BASIN. IT IS FORECAST
TO LOCATE FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA BORDER EARLY ON SAT, WHERE IT SHOULD STALL AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ACROSS 31N43W TO JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO
100 NM EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY EAST OF 50W. PATCHY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NEAR AND UP TO 60 NM SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WEST OF 50W. TO THE SOUTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
42W AND 49W. AT THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
29N22W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. REFER TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.
FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS AND SEAS AT 10 TO 12 FT IN LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELL ARE EVIDENT SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
BERMUDA, NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. FARTHER EAST, FRESH SE
TO SW WINDS WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. MODERATE TO FRESH S WINDS AND
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE NOTED OFF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST. OTHERWISE, A 1016 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND
A SURFACE RIDGE AT THE EAST ATLANTIC NEAR 35W ARE PROVIDING LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS IN MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL,
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AFRICA COAST AND THE FLORIDA-
GEORGIA COAST. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN
THE CENTRAL AFRICA COAST AND LESSER ANTILLES, GENTLE TO MODERATE
NNE TO ESE TRADES AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS
EXIST. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT IN
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST BY WED EVENING, REACHING
FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EASTWARD AND REACH FROM 31N68W TO EASTERN CUBA BY FRI
MORNING, AND FROM 31N61W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SAT
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
NORTH OF 25N.
CHAN
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