410
AXPZ20 KNHC 080848
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 8 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP
TROPICS IS PRODUCING STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE GALE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE
STRENGTH EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT FRESH TO STRONG WILL PERSIST
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE DIMINISHING
FURTHER MON. ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TODAY. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT THE WEBSITE-
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 07N95W TO 10N115W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE A GALE WARNING IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.
NW SWELL TO 8 FT GENERATED FROM A GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA
BEHIND 120 NM. A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N,
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 40N135W. THIS PATTERN
MAINTAINS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, OTHER THAN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING, AS HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. WINDS
NEAR CABO CORRIENTES WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE LENGTH OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WED. FARTHER
SOUTH, STRONG GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY
WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM TO 90W, SEAS ARE AT 5 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A GAP WIND
EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY AGAIN IMPACT THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY LATE WED. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 20N
TO THE ITCZ. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 7 TO 9 FT, WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE OF THE DEEP TROPICS
WEST OF 125W. NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W, GENTLE TO MODERATE
N TO E WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING INTO THE REGION NORTH
OF 05N AND AND WEST OF 125W, SUPPORTING 6 TO 8 FT COMBINED SEAS
AND REACHING AS HIGH AS 10 FT OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF
15N WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST. LOOKING
AHEAD, THE TRADE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL INCREASE WEST OF
130W INTO MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.
FARTHER EAST, A TROUGH MAY FROM SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND ALONG
110W BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A LONG FETCH OF MODERATE TO FRESH E
TO SE WINDS ALONG WITH SHORTER-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ INTO THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 115W
THROUGH MON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 120W AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH TUE.
CHRISTENSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page