094
AXPZ20 KNHC 081609
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 8 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
PANAMA TO 06N101W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N101W THROUGH 09N125W
TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 07N
TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 128W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS AT 7 TO 9 FT
ARE OCCURRING AT THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NEARBY WATERS. NW
SWELL TO 8 FT GENERATED FROM THESE WINDS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA BEHIND 120 NM. A BROAD RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N, ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR 40N135W. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
OTHER THAN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING, AS HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. WINDS
NEAR CABO CORRIENTES WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN THE LENGTH OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WED. FARTHER
SOUTH, STRONG GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY
WED FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM TO 90W, SEAS ARE AT 5 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A GAP WIND
EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY AGAIN IMPACT THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY LATE WED. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 20N
TO THE ITCZ. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 7 TO 9 FT, WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE OF THE DEEP TROPICS
WEST OF 125W. NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W, GENTLE TO MODERATE
N TO E WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING INTO THE REGION NORTH
OF 05N AND AND WEST OF 125W, SUPPORTING 6 TO 8 FT COMBINED SEAS
AND REACHING AS HIGH AS 10 FT OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF
15N WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST. LOOKING
AHEAD, THE TRADE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL INCREASE WEST OF
130W INTO MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.
FARTHER EAST, A TROUGH MAY FROM SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND ALONG
110W BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. A LONG FETCH OF MODERATE TO FRESH E
TO SE WINDS ALONG WITH SHORTER-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ INTO THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 115W
THROUGH MON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 120W AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH TUE.
CHAN
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