141
AXPZ20 KNHC 082218
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 8 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
PANAMA TO 07N90W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N90W TO 09N125W TO
09N126W, AND FROM 09N129W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT ARE
OCCURRING AT THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NEARBY WATERS. N SWELL
GENERATED FROM THESE WINDS CONTINUES TO CAUSE 6 TO 7 FT SEAS AT
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA NEAR 11N94W.
FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT
ARE FOUND OFFSHORE FROM CABO CORRIENTES. OTHERWISE, A BROAD
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REST OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 43N131W. THIS PATTERN
MAINTAINS GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EXCEPT THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AT THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DECREASE TO MODERATE ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS FURTHER WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD. ROUGH
SEAS IN THE SAME AREA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO MODERATE BY MON
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON. LOOKING
AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG WITH LOCALLY NEAR-GALE WINDS AND RAPIDLY
BUILDING SEAS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WED, IN RESPONSE
TO A ROBUST STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. FARTHER
SOUTH, STRONG GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY
WED, FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM TO 90W, SEAS ARE AT 5 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, RESIDUAL SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL LINGER AT THE FAR WESTERN OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA TONIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON EVENING. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY AGAIN IMPACT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY LATE WED. PULSES OF FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 43N131W
SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF
20N TO THE ITCZ. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 7 TO 9 FT, WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE OF THE DEEP TROPICS
WEST OF 125W. NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W, GENTLE TO MODERATE
N TO E WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING INTO THE REGION NORTH
OF 05N AND AND WEST OF 125W, SUPPORTING 6 TO 8 FT COMBINED SEAS
AND REACHING AS HIGH AS 10 FT BY MIDWEEK OVER THE TROPICAL
WATERS SOUTH OF 15N WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST. LOOKING AHEAD, THESE TRADE WINDS AND NW SWELL WEST OF
125W WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING SOUTH OF SOCORRO
ISLAND ALONG 111W. A LONG FETCH OF MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WINDS ALONG WITH SHORTER-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN 6 TO 8 FT SEAS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ INTO THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 115W THROUGH
MON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 120W AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH TUE.
CHAN
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