526
AXPZ20 KNHC 090337
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 9 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 05N80W TO 07N88W. ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 07N88W TO 10N118W TO 09N129W TO BEYOND 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN
93W AND 106W, FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND 128W, AND FROM
07.5N TO 10N W OF 129W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 7 FT ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
NEARBY WATERS. N SWELL GENERATED FROM THESE WINDS CONTINUES TO
CAUSE 6 TO 7 FT SEAS AT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA NEAR 11N94W. FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE FOUND OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES AND
BECOME FRESH NE WINDS EXTENDING TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE, A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE REST OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
45N130W. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
DRIFT NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS
BETWEEN THE CABO CORRIENTES AREA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
TONIGHT THAT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON. ELSEWHERE
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DECREASE THROUGH TUE
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO SHIFTS EASTWARD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NW MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL INDUCE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH AREAS OF NEAR GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS SPREADING SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WED, WITH STRONG NE GAP WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA. FARTHER SOUTH, STRONG GALES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED, FOLLOWING THIS SAME COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NORTH OF THE AREA
IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO REGION, AND EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM TO 88W, SEAS ARE AT 5
TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, RESIDUAL SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL LINGER AT THE FAR WESTERN OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA TONIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON EVENING. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
AGAIN IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY LATE WED. PULSES
OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
45N130W EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 145W. THIS
PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF
21N TO THE ITCZ, AND WEST OF 110W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 7
TO 9 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE
OF THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 125W. NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W,
GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO E WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, NEW NW SWELL HAS BEGUN PROPAGATING INTO THE
REGION NORTH OF 20N AND AND WEST OF 125W, SUPPORTING 6 TO 8 FT
COMBINED SEAS AND WILL REACHING AS HIGH AS 10 FT BY MIDWEEK OVER
THE TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 15N, WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL PERSIST. LOOKING AHEAD, THESE TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND NW SWELL WILL SUBSIDE WEST OF 125W TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO
ISLAND ALONG 114W. A LONG FETCH OF MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WINDS ALONG WITH SHORTER-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL RESULT IN 6 TO 8 FT SEAS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ INTO THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 115W THROUGH
MON. CONVERGING TRADE WINDS ACROSS AND WEST OF THIS TROUGH ARE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND 128W. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 120W AS THE TROUGH AND AND
ASSOCIATED WEATHER SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH TUE.
STRIPLING
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