739
AXPZ20 KNHC 091609
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 9 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF PANAMA
AND COLOMBIA TO 07N93W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N93W TO 09N130W
AND FROM 10N133W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 110W, AND FROM 08N TO
12N BETWEEN 132W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL PACIFIC
WATERS TO THE WEST OF 115W, ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 45N128W. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE
WATERS, EXCEPT INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL. FURTHER SOUTH, FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG CABO CORRIENTES AND EXTEND WEST AND
SOUTHWEST, BECOME FRESH NE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NEARBY WATERS, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 7
FT. FADING N SWELL GENERATED FROM RECENT GALE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ACROSS
THE WATERS OFF OF CHIAPAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS
OF GUATEMALA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL DRIFT NE AND
WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS BETWEEN THE
CABO CORRIENTES AREA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON, THEN RETURN ON TUE. ELSEWHERE
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DECREASE THROUGH TUE
AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO SHIFTS EASTWARD. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
EASTERN MEXICO MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE
ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NW MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL INDUCE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH AREAS TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE, AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS, SPREADING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG NE GAP WINDS SPILLING ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. FARTHER
SOUTH, STRONG GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED
MORNING THROUGH THU, FOLLOWING THIS SAME COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO NEAR STORM-FORCE LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHILE SEAS BUILD 15 TO 20 FT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NORTH OF THE AREA
IS MAINTAINING FRESH STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION, AND EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM TO 88W. SEAS THERE ARE AT
5 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL
SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
45N128W EXTENDS A FAIRLY NARROW RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 20N BETWEEN
115W AND 140W. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 22N TO THE ITCZ, AND WEST OF 115W. SEAS
OVER THESE WATERS ARE 6 TO 9 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 9 TO 10
FT OCCURRING IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE OF THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF
130W. NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W, GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO E
WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, NEW NW SWELL HAS BEGUN PROPAGATING INTO THE
REGION NORTH OF 20N AND AND WEST OF 125W, SUPPORTING 6 TO 8 FT
COMBINED SEAS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 10 FT BY MIDWEEK OVER
THE TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 130W, WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING
RIDGE. LOOKING AHEAD, THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS NEW HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. NEW REINFORCING NW SWELL
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN WATERS DURING THIS
TIME TO MAINTAIN SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT AND HIGHER.
FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO
ISLAND ALONG 116W. A LONG FETCH OF MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WINDS ALONG WITH SHORTER-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS RESULTED IN 6 TO 8 FT SEAS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ INTO THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.
CONVERGING TRADE WINDS ACROSS AND WEST OF THIS TROUGH ARE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND
130W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 120W THROUGH WED AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER SHIFTS WESTWARD, AND THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
CHAN
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