658
AXPZ20 KNHC 091712
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 9 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
UPDATED FORECAST PORTIONS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS SECTIONS
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF PANAMA
AND COLOMBIA TO 07N93W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N93W TO 09N130W
AND FROM 10N133W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS SEEN FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 110W, AND FROM 08N TO
12N BETWEEN 132W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL PACIFIC
WATERS TO THE WEST OF 115W, ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 45N128W. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE
WATERS, EXCEPT INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL. FURTHER SOUTH, FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS ALONG CABO CORRIENTES AND EXTEND WEST AND
SOUTHWEST, BECOME FRESH NE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NEARBY WATERS, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 7
FT. FADING N SWELL GENERATED FROM RECENT GALE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ACROSS
THE WATERS OFF OF CHIAPAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS
OF GUATEMALA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AT THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUBSIDE TO MODERATE BY THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF CABO CORRIENTES, A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MEXICO
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. IN
RESPONSE, STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LENGTH OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING.
STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL ALSO SPILL ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA
INTO THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS. FARTHER SOUTH, STRONG GALES ARE
PROBABLE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED MORNING THROUGH THU,
FOLLOWING THIS SAME COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO NEAR STORM-
FORCE LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NORTH OF THE AREA
IS MAINTAINING FRESH STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION, AND EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM TO 88W. SEAS THERE ARE AT
5 TO 7 FT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TUE MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS
PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 16N117W IS CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BUT
NORTH OF THE ITCZ. A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NORTH OF
THE AREA NEAR 45N128W EXTENDS A FAIRLY NARROW RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO
20N BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 22N TO THE ITCZ, AND WEST OF
115W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 6 TO 9 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
OF 9 TO 10 FT OCCURRING IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE OF THE DEEP
TROPICS WEST OF 130W. NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 120W, GENTLE TO
MODERATE N TO E WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, NEW NW SWELL HAS BEGUN PROPAGATING INTO THE
REGION NORTH OF 20N AND AND WEST OF 125W, SUPPORTING 6 TO 8 FT
COMBINED SEAS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 10 FT BY MIDWEEK OVER
THE TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 130W, WHERE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING
RIDGE. LOOKING AHEAD, THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS NEW HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. NEW REINFORCING NW SWELL
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN WATERS DURING THIS
TIME TO MAINTAIN SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT AND HIGHER.
FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO
ISLAND ALONG 116W. A LONG FETCH OF MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WINDS ALONG WITH SHORTER-PERIOD SWELL GENERATED FROM GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS RESULTED IN 6 TO 8 FT SEAS
NORTH OF THE ITCZ INTO THE TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.
CONVERGING TRADE WINDS ACROSS AND WEST OF THIS TROUGH ARE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND
130W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 120W THROUGH WED AS
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER SHIFTS WESTWARD, AND THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
CHAN
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