865
AXPZ20 KNHC 092228
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 9 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
A ROBUST GAP WIND EVENT IS ANTICIPATED AT THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC FROM WED THROUGH FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL REACH GALE
TO STRONG-GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH PEAK SEAS AT
15 TO 20 FT. WINDS MIGHT INCREASE FURTHER TO STORM-FORCE WED
EVENING. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF PANAMA
AND COLOMBIA TO 06N92W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N92W TO 09N130W
AND FROM 10N133W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 98W AND 117W, AND
FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA
OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS PREVAIL. FURTHER SOUTH,
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT ARE
OCCURRING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG CABO CORRIENTES AND
EXTEND WEST AND SOUTHWEST, BECOME NE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
NEARBY WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHER MEXICO
OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AT THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUBSIDE TO MODERATE LATER THIS EVENING. OTHER
THAN MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF CABO CORRIENTES, THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE MEXICO
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. IN
RESPONSE, STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY WINDS AND RAPIDLY
BUILDING SEAS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. STRONG NE
GAP WINDS WILL ALSO SPILL ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO THE
PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS. FARTHER SOUTH, STRONG GALES ARE FORECAST
AT THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NEARBY WATERS WED MORNING THROUGH
THU, FOLLOWING THIS SAME COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO NEAR
STORM-FORCE LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NORTH OF THE AREA
IS MAINTAINING FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION, AND EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM TO 88W. SEAS THERE ARE AT 5 TO 7
FT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SUSTAIN PULSES OF FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH TUE MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE. WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA WED
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND VERY
ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FAR WESTERN OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 16N117W IS COUPLING WITH DIVERGENT WINDS
ALOFT TO CAUSE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BUT NORTH OF THE ITCZ. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 20N
TO THE ITCZ, AND WEST OF 115W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 7 TO 10
FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 9 TO 10 FT OCCURRING IN THE TRADE
WIND ZONE OF THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 130W. NORTH OF 20N AND WEST
OF 120W, GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO SE WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS
ARE PRESENT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS
AT 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION NORTH OF 20N AND AND WEST OF 125W,
SUPPORTING 6 TO 8 FT COMBINED SEAS. SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT ARE GOING
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF
130W THROUGH THU, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH
OF 20N ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
FARTHER EAST, A LONG FETCH OF MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH SHORTER-PERIOD
SWELL GENERATED FROM GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAS RESULTED IN 6 TO 8 FT SEAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ INTO THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 120W
THROUGH WED AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER SHIFTS WESTWARD,
AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
CHAN
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