568
AXPZ20 KNHC 100349
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE DEC 10 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0240 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
A ROBUST GAP WIND EVENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC FROM WED THROUGH FRI MORNING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST
MEXICO. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE-FORCE WED MORNING AND
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE-FORCE, 40-45 KT, BY WED AFTERNOON
AND EVEING. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH NIGHT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO STORM-FORCE WED
EVENING. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THESE AREA WATERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO STRONG N GAP WINDS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 10N84W TO 05N94W. ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N94W TO 07.5N103W TO 09N117W TO 11N136W TO
BEYOND 09.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS SEEN WITHIN 420 NM N OF A LINE FROM 14N117.5W TO 08.5N140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
ACROSS 30N ALONG 125W AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST SE OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE
WATERS, EXCEPT TO 7 FT N THROUGH NW OF ISLA GUADALUPE. INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAINLY GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. FURTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE OCCURRING FROM
THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO CABO CORRIENTES,
BECOMING N TO NE ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NEARBY WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED MODERATE SWELL PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE SOUTHERN MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN
REGION OF THE U.S., STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LENGTH
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FROM EARLY TUE MORNING THROUGH WED
EVENING. STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL ALSO SPILL ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. FARTHER
SOUTH, STRONG GALES PEAKING NEAR 45 KT ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND AREA WATERS WED MORNING THROUGH THU,
FOLLOWING THIS SAME COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO NEAR STORM-
FORCE LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS GALE AREA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NORTH OF THE AREA
IS MAINTAINING FRESH NE TO E WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION, AND EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM TO 89W. SEAS THERE ARE AT 5 TO 7
FT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SUSTAIN PULSES OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TUE MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE. STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. WINDS
AND SEAS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE ITCZ ALONG 120W IS COUPLING WITH
DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
117W AND 127W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF 21N TO THE ITCZ, AND WEST OF 110W. SEAS
OVER THESE WATERS ARE 7 TO 10 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 9 TO
10 FT OCCURRING IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE OF THE DEEP TROPICS WEST
OF 130W. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS ALONG OCCURRING IN THE TRADE WIND
ZONE FROM 09N TO 15N AND W OF 127W. NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF
120W, GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WITH 6 TO 8 FT SEAS
ARE PRESENT. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS
AT 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, NEW NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO
THE REGION NORTH OF 20N AND AND WEST OF 125W TONIGHT AND TUE,
SUPPORTING 6 TO 9 FT COMBINED SEAS ACROSS THE NW WATERS. SEAS OF
7 TO 10 FT ARE GOING TO PERSIST ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH
OF 20N AND WEST OF 130W THROUGH THU, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL PERSIST AS A NEW RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN WATERS
FROM THE NW. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF 20N ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
FARTHER EAST, A LONG FETCH OF MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH SHORTER-PERIOD
SWELL GENERATED FROM GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAS RESULTED IN 6 TO 8 FT SEAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ INTO THE TROUGH
ALONG 120W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 120W THROUGH
WED AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER SHIFTS WESTWARD, AND THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
STRIPLING
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