639
AXPZ20 KNHC 101606
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 10 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: A RATHER SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM WED MORNING
THROUGH FRI MORNING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO, FOLLOWED
BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE-
FORCE WED MORNING, THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE-FORCE BY
WED AFTERNOON AND BRIEFLY INCREASE FURTHER TO STORM-FORCE LATE
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 13 TO 20
FT WED AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO 250 NM FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST BY
WED EVENING. THEY ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THESE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY THU EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO STRONG
TO NEAR NORTH GAP WINDS THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA, WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 09N83W TO 08N90W TO 06N96W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 06N110W TO 08N125W TO 03N130W
AND TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THESE WATERS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N129W TO 23N115W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
NEAR 17N110W. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS. WEST TO NORTHWEST SWELL
MOVING THROUGH THESE WATERS IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ACROSS
THE BAJA WATERS. INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS HAVE
BECOME NORTHWEST FRESH TO STRONG IN SPEEDS, EXCEPT STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE SPEEDS NORTH OF ABOUT 29N. SEAS OVER THE GULF
HAVE BUILD TO 5 TO 8 FT, EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF HIGHER SEAS OF 7
TO 10 FT IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF.
FURTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 8 FT IN WEST SWELL ARE PRESENT FROM THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA TO CABO CORRIENTES. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE OVER THE THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED
MODERATE SWELL PREVAILS ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN MEXICO
OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED. IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH WED EVENING. STRONG NORTHEAST GAP
WINDS WILL ALSO SPILL ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA GAPS
TO ACROSS PACIFIC WATERS. FARTHER SOUTH, STRONG GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FROM
WED LATE MORNING THROUGH THU, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM-
FORCE WINDS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWING THIS SAME
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THESE UPCOMING GALE AND STORM-FORCE WINDS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS MAINTAINING
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION. THESE WINDS EXTENDS DOWNSTREAM TO 91W. SEAS THERE ARE
IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SUSTAIN PULSES OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN
WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STORM-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA WED NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRI. WINDS AND SEAS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ NEAR 131W, AND IS
SHIFTING EASTWARD WHILE A JET STREAM STRETCHES FROM NEAR 20N140W
TO 21N135W TO 23N125W, AND CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. ITS ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN
AND AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN
130W AND 138W. AN AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W.
OTHERWISE, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF
ABOUT 19N IS ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO EXIST FROM
13N TO 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 10 TO
12 FT. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE ITCZ TRADES ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE
IN SPEEDS TO NEAR 25N WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NORTH OF 25N ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT
IN NORTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LARGE SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL HAS BEGUN TO
INTRUDE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION NORTH OF 20N AND AND WEST
OF 125W TONIGHT AND TUE, SUPPORTING 8 TO 11 FT COMBINED SEAS
ACROSS THE NW WATERS. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 20N AND
WEST OF 130W THROUGH THU, WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AS NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD, WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF 20N ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
FARTHER EAST, A LONG FETCH OF MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS
NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH SHORTER-PERIOD
SWELL GENERATED FROM GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAS RESULTED IN 6 TO 8 FT SEAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ INTO THE TROUGH
ALONG 121W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EAST OF 120W THROUGH
WED AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
AGUIRRE
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