769
AXPZ20 KNHC 102215
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 10 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM EARLY WED MORNING
THROUGH FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO, FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE-FORCE WED
MORNING, THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE-FORCE BY WED
AFTERNOON, AND BRIEFLY INCREASE FURTHER TO STORM-FORCE LATE WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 14 TO 21 FT WED
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXTEND TO 300 NM FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST BY WED EVENING,
AND THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU
EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE STRENGTH THU NIGHT AND PULSE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NW
COLOMBIA, WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N85W TO 06N95W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 06N96W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 122 AND 125W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 20N
WEST OF 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM FORCE WINDS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1034 MB HIGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND TROUGHING IN NORTHWEST MEXICO IS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR-GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND FRESH N WINDS SURROUNDING CABO CORRIENTES
AND CABO SAN LUCAS. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NE GAP WINDS ARE
NOTED IN THE SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS
OF 6 TO 9 FT ARE COMMON IN THE AREAS OF NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS
OF 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS THROUGH THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA GAPS AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH WED
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU. A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NW WINDS NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA THU INTO FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH N TO NW WINDS NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES THIS
WEEKEND. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WINDS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. OTHERWISE, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH, TO AT TIMES STRONG NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED EVENING. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THIS
REGION LATE WED THROUGH SAT. ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED E AND NW SWELL
WILL DEVELOP BY THU. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS WILL ALSO
PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS
AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STORM-FORCE GAP
WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.
WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH FRI. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO
SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, WITH GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE GAP WINDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 30N146W AND
RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 21N AND WEST OF
114W, WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN 14N AND
20W WEST OF 134W. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ACCOMPANY THE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. NORTH OF 21N, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE NOTED. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING SEAS OF 8
TO 10 FT NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 133W. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THIS SWELL
COMBINING WITH ROUGH SEAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ. ROUGH SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF 12N AND WEST OF 122W BY WED MORNING,
AND NORTH OF 07N AND WEST OF 120W BY THU MORNING. PEAK SEAS NEAR
12 FT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N
WEST OF 135W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N, WEST OF 120W. FARTHER EAST, STRONG NE
TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF 08N AND EAST OF
105W. ROUGH SEAS WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE GAP WIND EVENT.
ADAMS
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