153
AXPZ20 KNHC 110356
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 11 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0240 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
THUS FAR IN THE SEASON WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
FROM EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY REACH GALE-FORCE WED MORNING, THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE
TO STRONG GALE-FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON, AND BRIEFLY INCREASE
FURTHER TO STORM-FORCE LATE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL
QUICKLY BUILD TO 17 TO 23 FT WED EVENING AND NIGHT. GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO 300 NM FROM THE
TEHUANTEPEC COAST BY WED EVENING, AND THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TO STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE STRENGTH THU NIGHT AND PULSE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 10N86W TO 07.5N98W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07.5N98W TO 08N109W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 16.5N
BETWEEN 123W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM FORCE WINDS.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTALES OF NORTHWEST MEXICO IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO
LOCALLY NEAR-GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS SPREADING THROUGH THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHILE FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS SURROUND CABO SAN LUCAS, AND ARE OFFSHORE OF CABO
CORRIENTES. THIS BLAST OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IS ALSO FORCING
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NE GAP WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA SPILLING INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS OF SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO
BAY AND SOUTHWEST OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AS WELL AS OFFSHORE OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE GULF IN THE AREAS OF NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 9
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF BAJA, IN THE AREAS OF STRONG NE
GAPS WINDS. ELSEWHERE, A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, HIGHEST IN CENTRAL PORTIONS, AS
WELL AS THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA GAPS AND ADJACENT
PACIFIC WATERS THROUGH WED EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THU. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N
TO NW WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA THU INTO FRI. LOOKING AHEAD, A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NW WINDS NORTH OF CABO
CORRIENTES THIS WEEKEND. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
WINDS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE
NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG ABOUT 09N, WITH GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WILL INCREASE TO STRONG WED EVENING THROUGH THU, THEN PULSE TO
STRONG AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND AN APPROACHING CARIBBEAN COLD FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED E AND NW SWELL
FROM A TEHUANTEPEC STORM-FORCE WIND EVENT WILL DEVELOP THU
THROUGH FRI. STRONG WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS STORM-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI.
WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS
WILL ALSO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE GAP
WINDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N130W, PRODUCING
A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS NORTH OF THE
ITCZ AND W OF 115W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURRING SOUTH
OF 21N AND WEST OF 120W, WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS
OCCURRING BETWEEN 13N AND 20W WEST OF 135W. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT
ACCOMPANY THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. NORTH OF 21N, GENTLE
TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED. NW SWELL IS SUPPORTING SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 130W, EXCEPT FOR THE PEAK
OF NEW SWELL ARRIVING INTO THE FAR NW WATERS, WHERE RECENT
SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS 10-14 FT. SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THIS SWELL COMBINING WITH TRADE WIND
SWELL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ. ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
NORTH OF 12N AND WEST OF 122W BY WED MORNING, AND NORTH OF 07N
AND WEST OF 120W BY THU MORNING. PEAK SEAS AROUND 12 FT ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N WEST OF
135W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH OF
THE ITCZ TO 20N, WEST OF 120W. NEW NW SWELL ACROSS THE FAR NW
WATERS THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 FT OVERNIGHT
THERE BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. FARTHER EAST, STRONG NE TO E
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING SW
INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 08N AND EAST OF 107W. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO
12 WILL EXTEND WELL SW OF TEHUANTEPEC AND REACH FROM 04N TO 14N
AND E OF 110W BY EARLY FRI.
STRIPLING
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