574
AXPZ20 KNHC 111612
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 11 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
THUS FAR OF THE SEASON WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY THROUGH FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO,
FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
TO STRONG GALE-FORCE BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND BRIEFLY INCREASE
FURTHER TO STORM-FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SEAS
WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 18 TO 22 FT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO NEAR 300
NM FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST BY THIS EVENING. GALES ARE THEN
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THU EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TO STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE STRENGTH THU NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING: A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN A 1043 MB HIGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN OF THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGHING ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTALS OF NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FT. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS ALSO SURROUND CABO SAN LUCAS, AND ARE
OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. STRONG NE GAP WINDS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA, SPILLING INTO THE
PACIFIC WATERS OF SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY AND SOUTHWEST OF PUNTA
EUGENIA, AS WELL AS OFFSHORE OF PUNTA ABREOJOS. THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, LEADING TO QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 10N85W TO
06.5N97.5W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 06.5N97.5W TO 08N112W TO
BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
06N TO 08N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
GALE WARNING.
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N135W AND WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS
ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS, WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS
OCCURRING THROUGH THE GAPS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE ADJACENT
WATERS. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL PREVAIL, WITH LOCAL SEAS
TO 9 FT IN AREAS WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. SOUTH OF CABO
CORRIENTES, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN W
SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE STORM-FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT BASIN OF THE
UNITED STATES AND TROUGHING IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL LEAD TO
SUBSIDING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER TO MODERATE SPEEDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS EVENING THROUGH THU. A NEW
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NW WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW
THIS WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NW
WINDS NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND A COLD
FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LEADING TO FRESH NE WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 5 TO 6 FT.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WILL INCREASE TO STRONG THIS EVENING THROUGH THU, THEN PULSE TO
STRONG AT NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT, AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG
WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A TEHUANTEPEC
STORM-FORCE WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI, WITH ASSOCIATED
NW SWELL SPREADING TO OFFSHORE OF PAPAGAYO BY THU AFTERNOON.
WINDS OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA WILL DIMINISH THU NIGHT WITH SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS
WILL ALSO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE GAP
WINDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N135W, AND BROAD RIDGING IS
PRESENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 115W, WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE
TO E WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN 14N AND 20W WEST OF 135W. NW SWELL
MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS IS COMBINING WITH SEAS
DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE SEAS OF
10 TO 12 FT. NORTH OF 24N, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE
NOTED. FRESH LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS NORTH
OF 20N AND WEST OF 115W, AND SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FT ARE NOTED NORTH
OF 25N AND WEST OF 135W. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THIS SWELL COMBINING WITH TRADE WIND
SWELL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ. ROUGH SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
NORTH OF 09N AND WEST OF 110W THIS MORNING, AND NORTH OF 07N AND
WEST OF 118W BY THU MORNING. PEAK SEAS AROUND 13 FT ARE EXPECTED
IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N WEST OF 135W.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH OF THE ITCZ
TO 20N, WEST OF 120W. NEW NW SWELL ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS THIS
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10 TO 14 FT THIS MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY SUBSIDING. FARTHER EAST, STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS FROM TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING SW INTO THE WATERS
NORTH OF 08N AND EAST OF 107W. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 WILL EXTEND
WELL SW OF TEHUANTEPEC AND REACH FROM 04N TO 14N AND E OF 110W BY
EARLY FRI.
ADAMS
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