139
AXPZ20 KNHC 121605
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 12 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
THUS FAR OF THE SEASON CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A STALLING FRONT STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING STRONG GALE-FORCE N WINDS FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST
TO NEAR 14N, WITH STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS THEN EXTENDING 300
NM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. SEAS LIKELY RANGE FROM 16 TO 20 FT IN
THE AREA OF STRONG GALES. STRONG GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING, AND GALES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI MORNING. STRONG TO
NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRI THROUGH
MON MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. LARGE SWELL OF 8 FT AND GREATER
GENERATED FROM THIS SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS
06N BY THIS EVENING, EXTENDING BETWEEN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
105W. SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO AROUND 240 NM
OFFSHORE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 07N94W. THE ITCZ
THEN CONTINUES FROM 07N94W TO 10N116W TO BEYOND 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 99W AND 111W, FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN
116W AND 125W, AND FROM 07N TO 10N WEST OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING.
A TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM 33N115W
TO 19N104W, AND A 1017 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER INLAND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE MEXICO
OFFSHORE WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF
CABO SAN LAZARO. FARTHER SOUTH, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. A
LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS PROMOTING SEAS TO 8 FT NORTH OF 24N AND
WEST OF 117W. OTHERWISE, SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE BAJA
NORTE WATERS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS
NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT INTO FRI. ROUGH SEAS SUPPORTED BY
A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT OCCURRING AS FAR SOUTH AS 22.5N
BY FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS FRI THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS
A RESULT, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
BY EARLY SAT, AND ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN. LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS A
STALLING FRONT LINGERS FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ROUGH SEAS
TO 8 TO 9 FT ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA IN NE SWELL. LOCALLY FRESH
N WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE S TO SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 04N OFFSHORE OF
ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AWAY
FROM STRENGTHENING GAP WINDS, LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL. SEAS RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT IN PREDOMINANTLY SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
A STALLING FRONT. WINDS WILL PULSE AT FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AT
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. STRONG N WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG TEHUANTEPEC GALE-
FORCE WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA THROUGH FRI, WITH ASSOCIATED NW SWELL SPREADING TO
OFFSHORE OF PAPAGAYO BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. MODERATE N WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF PANAMA WILL PULSE TO FRESH AT NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE GAP
WINDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 32N138W,
AND BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF
120W, WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS OCCURRING BETWEEN 08N AND
20W WEST OF 131W, WHERE SEAS ARE 10 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL. NORTH
OF 25N, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED,
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N127W TO
31N137W. FRESH NW SWELL IS COMBINING WITH RESIDUAL SEAS NORTH OF
THE ITCZ, TO PRODUCE A BROAD SWATH OF SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT NORTH
OF 05N AND WEST OF 120W. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THIS SWELL COMBINING WITH TRADE WIND
SWELL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 8
FT AND HIGHER NORTH OF 06N AND WEST OF 118W TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.
PEAK SEAS AROUND 13 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS
BETWEEN 10N AND 20N WEST OF 135W IN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST TRADE
WINDS. THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N, WEST OF 120W. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO
AROUND 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. MODERATE NW SWELL MOVING
THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL MERGE WITH NE SWELL GENERATED
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO
12 FT ACROSS THESE WATERS THROUGH SUN BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
AN E TO W RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS ALONG ABOUT 27N
OVER THE WEEKEND TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 20N TO THE
ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADAMS
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