306  
AXPZ20 KNHC 130415  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0405 UTC FRI DEC 13 2024  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND  
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING  
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,  
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0300 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT  
THUS FAR OF THE SEASON HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE  
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE  
CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRIFTING NE  
TONIGHT, WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD  
BEHIND A STALLING FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH  
NORTHERN HONDURAS AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES  
TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE N WINDS FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST TO NEAR  
14.5N, WITH STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS THEN EXTENDING NEARLY 300  
NM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. SEAS LIKELY RANGE FROM 11 TO 13 FT IN  
THE AREA OF GALES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY  
TONIGHT, WITH GALES EXPECTED TO END FRI MORNING. THEN STRONG TO  
NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF 13N FRI AFTERNOON  
THROUGH MON MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE  
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. LARGE SWELL OF 8 FT AND  
GREATER GENERATED FROM THIS SIGNIFICANT EVENT HAS SPREAD AS FAR  
SOUTH AS 06N THIS EVENING, AND EXTENDS BETWEEN OFFSHORE OF THE  
PAPAGAYO REGION AND 107W. AS THIS GALE EVENT WINDS DOWN TONIGHT  
THROUGH LATE FRI, AND A MORE TYPICAL STRONG GAP WIND SCENARIO  
PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND, THE ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND  
SEAS OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC ARE ONLY EXPECTED  
TO EXTEND TO AROUND 240 NM OFFSHORE.  
 
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS  
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND  
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE  
INFORMATION.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 09N84W TO 06N95W.  
THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 06N95W TO 09.5N125W TO BEYOND  
07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  
OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 106W AND 140W.  
   
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO  
 
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON  
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING.  
 
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE BAJA NORTE WATERS TONIGHT FROM  
THE NORTHWEST, CURRENTLY NEAR 30N120W, WHILE A TROUGH HAS FORMED  
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. AFTERNOON SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED GENTLE NW  
WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF 26N AND WEST OF 115W OFFSHORE OF BAJA  
CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA.  
NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WATERS IS PROMOTING SEAS OF 6 TO  
7 FT ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS EXCEPT TO 8 FT ACROSS THE  
OUTER WATERS. ELSEWHERE, BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE REST OF  
THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS, SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND  
MODERATE SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO  
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF  
TEHUANTEPEC DESCRIBED ABOVE, THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT  
APPROACHING BAJA NORTE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE MODERATE  
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE  
WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING, AS THE  
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AND DISSIPATES. ROUGH SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT  
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH  
FRI, WITH PEAK SEAS OF 10 TO 11 FT EXPECTED NORTH OF PUNTA  
EUGENIA BY FRI EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS  
THE AREA WATERS THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND  
TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT,  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF  
OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY EARLY  
SAT, AND ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUN. FRESH NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE BAJA  
NORTE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT AS  
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER EASTERN MEXICO, THE SOUTHERN  
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN, BEHIND A STALLING FRONT  
LINGERS FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH NORTHERN HONDURAS AND CENTRAL  
GUATEMALA. ROUGH SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT IN MERGING NE AND NW SWELL  
PREVAIL ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE W OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO  
LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN  
EDGE OF A SIGNIFICANT TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT THAT IS  
IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA WITH  
STRONG N WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO 11 FT. THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL  
HAS REACHED OFFSHORE OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY  
FRESH N WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE,  
MODERATE S TO SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 04N OFFSHORE OF  
ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OCCURRING  
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AWAY  
FROM STRENGTHENING GAP WINDS, LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS  
PREVAIL. SEAS RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT IN PREDOMINANTLY SW SWELL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SAT MORNING AS STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF  
MEXICO, IN THE WAKE OF A STALLING CARIBBEAN FRONT. WINDS ACROSS  
THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL THEN PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS EACH NIGHT  
INTO EARLY MON, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OCCURRING EACH NIGHT  
THEREAFTER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE,  
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING ALONG  
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG TEHUANTEPEC GALE- FORCE WIND EVENT  
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN  
GUATEMALA THROUGH FRI. WINDS OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA WILL DIMINISH  
LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS PRODUCED BY THE NW SLOWLY SUBSIDING  
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS  
THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.  
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS  
WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE WINDS AND  
SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE GAP  
WINDS.  
   
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA  
 
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALONG HAS COLLAPSED, AS A  
WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND  
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 25N136W.  
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND  
THE FRONT E OF 130W. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE  
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 25N. SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST  
OF 120W, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE  
MONSOON TROUGH, WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 20N WEST  
OF 130W, WHERE PEAK SEAS ARE 12 TO 13 FT. A BROAD SWATH OF SEAS  
OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 01N AND WEST OF 118W AS NW  
SWELL COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL SWELL NORTH OF THE ITCZ. TO THE  
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9  
FT PREVAIL.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD AREA OF ROUGH SEAS FROM NW SWELL AND  
TRADE WIND-GENERATED SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS IN  
EXCESS OF 8 FT NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 115W THROUGH FRI.  
PEAK SEAS AROUND 13 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS  
BETWEEN 10N AND 20N WEST OF 135W IN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST TRADE  
WINDS. N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF  
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS PAPAGAYO REGION WILL  
PROPAGATE WESTWARD OVER THE COMING DAYS, REACHING AREAS NORTH OF  
05N BY FRI MORNING. ROUGH SEAS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SOURCES  
WILL COMBINE IN THE CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W ON FRI.  
SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND,  
BUT RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF  
110W. ADDITIONALLY, A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING NORTH OF THE  
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE AND REINFORCE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8  
FT FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH OF  
THE ITCZ TO 20N, WEST OF 120W. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY  
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 15N  
BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. AN E TO W RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA  
WATERS ALONG ABOUT 27N OVER THE WEEKEND TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE  
WINDS FROM 20N TO THE ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
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