189
AXPZ20 KNHC 131013
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 13 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
THUS FAR OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEGUN
TO QUICKLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, WITH MINIMAL GALES EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNRISE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS DRIFTING NE TONIGHT, WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD BEHIND A STALLING FRONT STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH NORTHERN HONDURAS AND INTO CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE N WINDS
FROM THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST TO NEAR 14.5N, WITH STRONG TO GALE-
FORCE WINDS THEN EXTENDING NEARLY 250 NM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST,
AND LARGE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING 600 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST. PEAK SEAS LIKELY RANGE FROM 11 TO 12 FT IN THE AREA
OF GALES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY THIS MORNING.
THEN STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF 13N
FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH MON MORNING AS THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. LARGE
SEAS OF 8 FT AND GREATER GENERATED FROM THIS SIGNIFICANT EVENT
HAVE SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS 05N TONIGHT, AND EXTEND BETWEEN
OFFSHORE OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND 107W. AS THIS GALE EVENT
WINDS DOWN THROUGH LATE FRI, AND A MORE TYPICAL STRONG GAP WIND
SCENARIO PREVAILS OVER THE WEEKEND, THE ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT
WINDS AND SEAS OCCURRING ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO AROUND 240 NM OFFSHORE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES_EASTPAC.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N75W TO 10N84W TO 05N94W
TO 06N100W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 06N100W TO 09N122W TO
BEYOND 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND 139W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING.
A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE BAJA NORTE WATERS TONIGHT,
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM BAJA NORTE TO 30N118W TO BEYOND 27N124W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF 26N AND WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA, AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS INSIDE THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE W OF
PUERTO ANGEL. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WATERS IS
PROMOTING SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS
EXCEPT TO 8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. IN THE REST OF GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SEAS THEN BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE QUICKLY BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE GULF. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH MON MORNING
THERE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
MODESTLY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE NW SWELL,
WITH SEAS REACHING 10 TO 11 FT ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
BY EARLY SAT, AND ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SAT EVENING THROUGH EARLY MON. FRESH MODERATE TO LARGE NW SWELL
WILL ENTER THE BAJA NORTE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TONIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER EASTERN MEXICO, THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN, BEHIND A STALLING FRONT
LINGERING FROM CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH NORTHERN HONDURAS AND INTO
CENTRAL GUATEMALA. ROUGH SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN MERGING NE AND NW
SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE W OF PAPAGAYO, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF A SIGNIFICANT TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT THAT IS
IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA W OF 93W,
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELL HAS REACHED OFFSHORE
OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS ARE NOTED
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF 04N OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA, WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AWAY FROM STRONG GAP WINDS, LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT IN
PREDOMINANTLY SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH LATE SAT MORNING AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST OVER EASTERN MEXICO, THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO, AND THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF A STALLING
CARIBBEAN FRONT. WINDS ACROSS PAPAGAYO WILL THEN PULSE TO STRONG
SPEEDS EACH NIGHT SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF A TEHUANTEPEC GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH
ASSOCIATED NW SWELL DOMINATING THE WATERS AS FAR SE AS PAPAGAYO
TODAY. WINDS OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING
WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE TROUGH, AWAY
FROM THE GAP WINDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALONG HAS COLLAPSED, AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO 25N130W.
MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
E OF 130W. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF 24N. SOUTH OF 24N AND WEST OF 120W,
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 18N WEST OF
130W, WHERE RECENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA MEASURED PEAK SEAS
OF 12 TO 14 FT. A BROAD SWATH OF SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL ARE
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 01N AND WEST OF 115W. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN
SE SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD AREA OF ROUGH SEAS FROM NW SWELL AND
TRADE WIND-GENERATED SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 115W THROUGH SAT.
PEAK SEAS AROUND 13 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS
BETWEEN 10N AND 20N WEST OF 135W IN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST TRADE
WINDS DURING THAT TIME. N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY GALE-FORCE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS PAPAGAYO
REGION WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, REACHING AREAS NORTH OF 04N BY BY MIDDAY TODAY. LARGE
SEAS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SOURCES WILL COMBINE IN THE CENTRAL
WATERS BETWEEN 100W AND 120W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND, BUT RESIDUAL ROUGH
SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 110W IN PERSISTENT NW
SWELL. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE NW SWELL AND
REINFORCE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N, WEST OF 120W
THROUGH MON AS AN E TO W RIDGE RESIDES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
ALONG ABOUT 27N. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 15N BETWEEN 105W
AND 120W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page