474
AXPZ20 KNHC 131550
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 13 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N90W. THE ITCZ
THEN CONTINUES FROM 07N90W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN
107W AND 111W, AND FROM 05N TO 11N WEST OF 116W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD, AND A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL CUBA INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND
STRONG WINDS EXTEND OVER 200 NM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. PEAK SEAS
NEAR 11 FT ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT ARE COMBINING WITH SEAS
GENERATED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS 04N. ELSEWHERE, A DECAYING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND TO 25N130W, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS
ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT. A NEW LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IS
PROMPTING SEAS OF 8 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO
SAN LAZARO. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4
TO 7 FT PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO, WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS NOTED SOUTH OF MANZANILLO AND
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL THROUGH THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
MON MORNING. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG
N WINDS WILL THEN PULSE IN THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL
DISSIPATE LATER TODAY, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. NEW NW SWELL WILL PROMOTE
ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SAT, AND PEAK
SEAS TO 11 FT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS WEEKEND WHILE A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, AND
TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY EARLY
SAT, AND ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MON. LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. NEW MODERATE TO LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE BAJA
NORTE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG NE GAP WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA
INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS. ROUGH SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE MERGING
WITH SEAS GENERATED BY NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS GENERATED IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT ARE OCCURRING WELL
OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH NICARAGUA. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA. FRESH N WINDS ARE ALSO
PULSING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S
TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AWAY FROM THE FRESH TO STRONG GAP
WINDS, MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING, WITH WINDS
PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS EACH NIGHT SAT NIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ASSOCIATED STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA THIS MORNING. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THE GAP WINDS IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH NICARAGUA TODAY BEFORE SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT, THOUGH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS WINDS PULSE. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS
WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE TROUGH, AWAY
FROM THE GAP WINDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A DECAYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO 25N130W, AND A 1023 MB HIGH IS
BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA, CENTERED NEAR 31N126W. LOCALLY
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT, BUT GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE GENERALLY NOTED
NORTH OF 20N. SOUTH OF 20N TO THE ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
PREVAIL, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 12N AND
WEST OF 128W. A COMPLEX SWELL PATTERN, COMPRISED OF RESIDUAL
ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 25N, NEW LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ENTERING THE
NORTHERN WATERS, AND ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS
OF THE PACIFIC, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS SOUTH OF 04N AND EAST
OF 120W. PEAK SEAS OF 11 TO 13 FT ARE OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 15N
WEST OF 128W. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE
WINDS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD AREA OF ROUGH SEAS FROM MULTIPLE SETS
OF NW SWELL, TRADE WIND-GENERATED SWELL AND SWELL FROM GAP WIND
EVENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS TODAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS SOUTH OF 04N AND EAST OF 120W. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE FOR AREAS EAST OF 100W ON SAT. PEAK SEAS AROUND
13 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N
WEST OF 135W IN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST TRADE WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NEW NW SWELL WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 25N SAT
INTO SUN. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE NW SWELL AND
REINFORCE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N, WEST OF 120W
THROUGH MON AS AN E TO W RIDGE RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA
WATERS. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADAMS
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