064
AXPZ20 KNHC 132157
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 13 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N90W. THE ITCZ
THEN CONTINUES FROM 07N90W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 10N
BETWEEN 110W AND 129W, AND FROM 06N TO 09N WEST OF 137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD, AND A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL CUBA INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND OVER 150 NM OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST. PEAK SEAS NEAR 10 FT ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST
WINDS. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT ARE COMBINING
WITH SEAS GENERATED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, AND SEAS IN EXCESS
OF 8 FT EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS 04N. ELSEWHERE, A NEW LONG-PERIOD
NW SWELL IS PROMPTING SEAS OF 8 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. OTHERWISE, WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS OVER
MUCH OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE N TO NE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT
PREVAIL THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
MON MORNING. ROUGH SEAS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG
N WINDS WILL THEN PULSE IN THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEW NW SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SAT, AND PEAK SEAS TO 11
FT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
MODESTLY ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THIS WEEKEND WHILE A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, AND TROUGHING
PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY EARLY SAT,
AND ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MON. LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NEW MODERATE TO LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE BAJA
NORTE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG NE GAP WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA
INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS. ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION,
AS WELL AS IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA, GENERATED
FROM NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH N
WINDS ARE ALSO PULSING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AWAY FROM THE FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS, MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING, WITH WINDS
PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS EACH NIGHT SAT NIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THE GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS CONTINUE.
MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
PANAMA EACH NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE
TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE GAP WINDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTH OF THE AREA FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 32N142W. MODERATE SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING
NORTH OF 29N AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ELSEWHERE, A 1024 MB HIGH IS
BUILDING NEAR 31N125W, AND WEAK RIDGING IS LEADING TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO NE WINDS NORTH OF 17N. SOUTH OF 17N TO THE ITCZ,
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF 12N AND WEST OF 131W. A COMPLEX SWELL
PATTERN, COMPRISED OF RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF 25N, NEW LONG-
PERIOD NW SWELL ENTERING THE NORTHERN WATERS, AND ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED BY STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE LEADING TO WIDESPREAD ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS SOUTH OF 04N AND EAST OF 120W. PEAK SEAS OF 11
TO 13 FT ARE OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 13N WEST OF 130W. SOUTH OF
THE ITCZ, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD AREA OF ROUGH SEAS FROM MULTIPLE SETS
OF NW SWELL, TRADE WIND-GENERATED SWELL AND SWELL FROM GAP WIND
EVENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS TODAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS SOUTH OF 04N AND EAST OF 120W. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE FOR AREAS EAST OF 100W ON SAT. PEAK SEAS AROUND
13 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN 05N AND 15N
WEST OF 135W IN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST TRADE WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NEW NW SWELL WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 23N SAT
INTO SUN. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE NW SWELL AND
REINFORCE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N, WEST OF 120W
THROUGH MON AS AN E TO W RIDGE RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA
WATERS. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page