370
AXPZ20 KNHC 140335
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 14 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N71W TO 09N86W TO 05N93W.
THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 05N93W TO 09.5N117W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 107W AND 129W, AND FROM 06N
TO 09.5N WEST OF 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
EASTERN MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN, BEHIND A STALLED FRONT FROM
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, WITH STRONG WINDS EXTENDING ABOUT 150 NM OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST. PEAK SEAS OF 10 FT ARE IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST
WINDS. LARGE N TO NE SEAS GENERATED BY A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND
EVENT IN RECENT DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH PREVAILING NW SWELL TO
PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 8 FT EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD AS FAR
SOUTH AS 04N. ELSEWHERE, NEW NW SWELL IS PROMPTING SEAS OF 8 TO
11 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA.
OTHERWISE, WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE MEXICO OFFSHORE
WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT
OFFSHORE OF THE REST BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL THROUGH THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
MON MORNING. ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WINDS. N WINDS WILL THEN PULSE FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEW NW SWELL WILL
PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SAT,
WITH PEAK SEAS TO 11 FT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS THIS WEEKEND WHILE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION, WHILE TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY EARLY SAT, AND ACROSS THE
WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SAT EVENING THROUGH EARLY MON.
LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NEW MODERATE TO
LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE BAJA NORTE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN,
BEHIND A STALLED FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS REGION, AS
WELL AS IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA. FRESH N WINDS
ARE ALSO PULSING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AWAY FROM THE FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS, MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT
PREVAIL. FUEGO VOLCANO IN GUATEMALA IS EMITTING FREQUENT
SUSPENDED ASH THIS EVENING MOVING WSW AND DISPERSING BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH SAT MORNING, WITH WINDS THEN PULSING TO FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS EACH NIGHT, SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE GAP
WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN PANAMA, AND
SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA, WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN GENERALLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE WATERS OF COLOMBIA E OF 80W.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA,
FROM JUST OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N140W. MODERATE
SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 29N AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
ELSEWHERE, A 1024 MB HIGH IS SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 31N123W, WITH
WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD AND LEADING TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO NE WINDS NORTH OF 20N. SOUTH OF 20N TO THE ITCZ,
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF 13N AND WEST OF 136W, WHERE SEAS ARE 11 TO 13
FT. A COMPLEX SWELL PATTERN, COMPRISED OF RESIDUAL MIXED SEAS
SOUTH OF 25N, NEW LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL ENTERING THE NORTHERN
WATERS, AND NE SEAS GENERATED BY RECENT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS SOUTH OF 04N AND EAST OF 120W. SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS OF 6
TO 9 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ FROM 07N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 107W
AND 129W, AND FROM 06N TO 09.5N WEST OF 132W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD AREA OF ROUGH SEAS FROM MULTIPLE SETS
OF NW SWELL, TRADE WIND-GENERATED SWELL AND SWELL FROM GAP WIND
EVENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS TODAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS SOUTH OF 04N AND EAST OF 120W. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE E OF 100W ON SAT. PEAK SEAS AROUND 13 FT ARE
EXPECTED IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN 05N AND 15N WEST OF
135W IN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST TRADE WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NEW
NW SWELL WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 23N SAT INTO SUN. A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE NW SWELL AND REINFORCE SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N, WEST OF 120W THROUGH MON
AS AN E TO W RIDGE RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA WATERS.
FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
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