616
AXPZ20 KNHC 140933
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT DEC 14 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO 08.5N83W TO
05N95W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 07.5N114W TO
06N125W TO BEYOND 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 80W AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
112W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 07.5N TO 09.5N WEST OF 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
EASTERN MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN, BEHIND A STALLED DISSIPATING
FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS PATTERN
IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, WITH STRONG WINDS EXTENDING ABOUT 150 NM OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST. PEAK SEAS OF 10 FT ARE IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST
WINDS. LARGE N TO NE SEAS GENERATED BY A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND
EVENT IN RECENT DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH PREVAILING NW SWELL WELL
OFFSHORE TO PRODUCE SEAS 7 TO 9 FT EXTENDING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTWARD AS FAR AS 04N. ELSEWHERE, NEW NW SWELL IS
PROMPTING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH
OF PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT, WITH PEAK SEAS TO 11 FT CURRENTLY
OCCURRING NW OF ISLA GUADALUPE. OTHERWISE, A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS
OVER MUCH OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, SUPPORTING MODERATE N
TO NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT OFFSHORE OF THE REST BAJA
CALIFORNIA FRESH NW WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF CABO CORRIENTES.
GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT PREVAIL THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
MON MORNING. ROUGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WINDS. N WINDS WILL THEN PULSE FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NEW NW SWELL WILL
PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SAT.
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 30N122W WILL BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS
THE AREA WATERS THIS WEEKEND WHILE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PASS
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND A SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE COAST OF CABO CORRIENTES BEGINNING
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MON. LOCALLY STRONG NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SURROUNDING PUNTA EUGENIA AND IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEW MODERATE TO
LARGE NW SWELL WILL ENTER THE BAJA NORTE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MON.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN, BEHIND
A STALLED DISSIPATING FRONT FROM CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. ROUGH SEAS 7 TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
REGION, AS WELL AS IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA. FRESH
N WINDS ARE ALSO PULSING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AWAY FROM THE
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS, MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FT PREVAIL. FUEGO VOLCANO IN GUATEMALA HAS BEEN EMITTING
FREQUENT PUFFS OF SUSPENDED ASH TONIGHT, THAT IS MOVING SW AND
DISPERSING AS IT REACHES THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. 1009 LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN COLOMBIA IS
INITIATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
04N TO 07N E OF 80W.
FOR THE FORECAST, PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH MODERATE WINDS
THEN PULSING TO FRESH SPEEDS EACH NIGHT, SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE N WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS JUST OFFSHORE OF WESTERN
COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH
GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE TROUGH, AWAY
FROM THE GAP WINDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
WATERS, EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE AREA
WATERS NEAR 30N136W. MODERATE W TO SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH
OF 29N AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ELSEWHERE, A 1024 MB HIGH IS SE OF
THE FRONT NEAR 30N122W, WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND LEADING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS
NORTH OF 20N. SEAS THERE ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN FRESH NW SWELL. SOUTH
OF 20N TO THE ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL, WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OCCURRING SOUTH OF 12N AND WEST OF 138W.
SEAS ACROSS THIS ZONE ARE 7 TO 11 FT, EXCEPT TO 12 FT IN THE AREA
OF STRONG WINDS. A COMPLEX SWELL PATTERN, COMPRISED OF RESIDUAL
MIXED SEAS SOUTH OF 20N, NEW NW SWELL ENTERING THE NORTHERN
WATERS, AND NE SEAS GENERATED BY RECENT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MIXING WITH NW SWELL ARE LEADING TO A
WIDESPREAD SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE PACIFIC, EXCEPT FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF 04N AND EAST OF 120W
WHERE SEAS ARE AROUND 6 FT. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND N
OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 112W AND 126W AND FROM 07.5N
TO 09.5N WEST OF 134W..
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD AREA OF ROUGH SEAS FROM MULTIPLE SETS
OF NW SWELL, TRADE WIND-GENERATED SWELL AND SWELL FROM GAP WIND
EVENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS TODAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS SOUTH OF 04N AND EAST OF 120W. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE E OF 100W THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS OF
11 FT AND HIGHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS OF THE
TRADE WIND ZONE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEW NW SWELL WILL
REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 23N TODAY INTO SUN. A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE NW SWELL AND REINFORCE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8
FT FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N, WEST OF 120W THROUGH MON NIGHT AS AN E
TO W RIDGE RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA WATERS. FARTHER
EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page