430
AXPZ20 KNHC 142153
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 14 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TODAY. PEAK SEAS NEAR 10 FT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN
THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT, PROMPTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 12 FT IN
RESPONSE TO THE GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
ON SUN, AND N WINDS WILL THEN PULSE FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N92W. THE ITCZ
THEN CONTINUES FROM 06N92W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 10N WEST OF 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N127W IS BUILDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, AND TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
N TO NW WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO OFFSHORE OF JALISCO, AND MODERATE N TO NE
WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 23N
PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 10 FT
WEST OF 117W. FARTHER SOUTH OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, AWAY FROM GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD
MODESTLY THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION, AND TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE FIRST COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND, AND FRESH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF BAJA THIS
EVENING INTO MON. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
SURROUNDING PUNTA EUGENIA AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ON SUN AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN WATERS. ROUGH
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER 8 FT AS FAR
SOUTH AS 20N BY THIS EVENING, AND NORTH OF 17N BY SUN MORNING.
ROUGH SEAS WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS OFFSHORE
OF BAJA EARLY SUN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS NEW
MODERATE TO LARGE NW SWELL ENTERS THE WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS IN COLOMBIA. ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT
ARE LIKELY IN THIS REGION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE
WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE PULSING GAP WINDS, MODERATE NE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT PREVAIL. OTHERWISE, SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO PREVAILS, AND
LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS NEAR COLOMBIA. WINDS WILL THEN PULSE TO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS EACH NIGHT SUN NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
WITH GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE TROUGH,
AWAY FROM THE GAP WINDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1025 MB HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS NORTH OF 25N
WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN WATERS,
EXTENDING FROM A LOW IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N128W, WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING TO 30N140W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NW TO N WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 29N AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
OTHERWISE, RIDGING IS PROMOTING GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO NE WINDS
NORTH OF 20N, AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 20N TO THE
ITCZ. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 12N WEST OF 120W. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ,
MODERATE SE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS NOTED WEST
OF 130W. A COMPLEX SWELL PATTERN, COMPRISED OF RESIDUAL MIXED
SEAS SOUTH OF 20N, NEW NW SWELL ENTERING THE NORTHERN WATERS, AND
NE SEAS GENERATED BY RECENT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC MIXING WITH NW SWELL ARE LEADING TO A WIDESPREAD SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC,
EXCEPT FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF 04N AND EAST OF 120W WHERE SEAS ARE
AROUND 6 FT. LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED NW AND E SWELL
ARE NOTED BETWEEN 07N AND 12N WEST OF 134W. PEAK SEAS TO 11 FT
ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS NORTH OF 29N,
GENERATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD AREA OF ROUGH SEAS FROM MULTIPLE SETS
OF NW SWELL, TRADE WIND-GENERATED SWELL AND SWELL FROM GAP WIND
EVENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS TODAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS SOUTH OF 04N AND EAST OF 120W. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE E OF 105W THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS OF 11
FT AND HIGHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS OF THE
TRADE WIND ZONE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEW NW SWELL WILL
REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 23N INTO SUN. A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE NW SWELL AND REINFORCE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8
FT FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N, WEST OF 120W THROUGH MON NIGHT AS AN E
TO W RIDGE RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA WATERS. FARTHER EAST,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE
ITCZ TO AROUND 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page