968
AXPZ20 KNHC 150354
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 15 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. PEAK SEAS NEAR 10 FT ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT, PROMPTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR 12 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE GALE FORCE WINDS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON SUN, THEN EXPECT N WINDS TO PULSE FRESH TO
STRONG ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING N OF 13N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N75W TO 08.5N83W TO
05N92W. THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUES FROM 05N92W TO 07.5N125W TO BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 08N TO
12N WEST OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS EARLIER TODAY HAS
BEGUN TO COLLAPSE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA
WATERS. MEANWHILE, SURFACE TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N
TO NW WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO LAS TRES MARIAS, WHILE MODERATE N TO NE
WINDS PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA HAVE BUILT TO 3 TO 5 FT. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM PUNTA EUGENIA TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, WHILE NEW NW SWELL ENTERING THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT
IS PRODUCING SEAS 8 TO 10 FT NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. FARTHER
SOUTH AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, AWAY FROM GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD
MODESTLY THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION, AND TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE FIRST
COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND, AND FRESH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF BAJA THIS
EVENING INTO MON. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SURROUNDING
PUNTA EUGENIA AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUN AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN WATERS. ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND, PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER 8 FT AS FAR SOUTH AS 20N BY
THIS EVENING, AND NORTH OF 17N BY SUN MORNING. REINFORCED NW
SWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA EARLY
SUN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE PULSING GAP
WINDS, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
PREVAIL. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SUN MORNING AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS WILL THEN PULSE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS EACH NIGHT
SUN NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE N
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING
NORTH OF THE TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE GAP WINDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING, EXTENDING FROM 30N125W TO
28N135W. HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON HAS
COLLAPSED, WITH A NEW 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
30N136W. SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WEAK W TO E RIDGE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL TO 22N. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 7 TO
9 FT, BUT WITH NEW NW SWELL MOVING IN WITH THE FRONT, PRODUCING
SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, BETWEEN
22N AND THE ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL, WHERE
SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT TO 11 FT W OF 135W.
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ, MODERATE SE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH LOCALLY FRESH
SE WINDS NOTED WEST OF 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD AREA OF ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OPEN WATERS TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS SOUTH OF
04N AND EAST OF 120W. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE E OF
105W THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS OF AROUND 11 FT AND HIGHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS OF THE TRADE WIND ZONE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW NW SWELL ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT WILL REINFORCE ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 23N INTO SUN. A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE NW SWELL AND REINFORCE SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 8 FT FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE ITCZ THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N, WEST OF 120W THROUGH MON
NIGHT AS THE E TO W RIDGE RESIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREA
WATERS. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
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