954
AXPZ20 KNHC 151524
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 15 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND EASTERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING, WITH GALES
OCCURRING NORTH OF 15N. PEAK SEAS NEAR 11 FT ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK,
WHICH WILL PROMPT A SLOW WEAKENING OF THIS NORTHERLY GAP WIND
FLOW ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW
GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING, THEN EXPECT N WINDS TO PULSE TO
STRONG AT NIGHT ACROSS THE GULF REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY REMAINING N OF
13N. LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALES TO RETURN TO
THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION THU NIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N103W. THE ITCZ THEN
CONTINUES FROM 05N103W TO BEYOND 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
REGARDING THE GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY, LEADING TO A FRESHENING IN WINDS. RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS DEPICTED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO BECOMING MODERATE
N TO NE WINDS FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ASSUMED TO BE OCCURRING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE BUILT TO 3 TO 5
FT. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WHILE NEW NW SWELL ENTERING
THE REGIONAL WATERS IS PRODUCING SEAS 8 TO 11 FT NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. FARTHER SOUTH AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, AWAY FROM GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES THROUGH
MON. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK, WHILE TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER MEXICO
WILL TO SUPPORT FRESH N-NW WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
TODAY THROUGH MON. FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MORNING. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SURROUNDING PUNTA
EUGENIA AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF 30N. NW SWELL ENTERING
THE BAJA NORTE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH LATE MON, PRODUCING SEAS 9 TO 11 FT ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, AND BUILDING 7 TO 10 FT SEAS ACROSS THE
REMAINING BAJA WATERS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
TUE, BEFORE THE NEXT NW SWELL MOVES INTO THE AREA WATERS EARLY
WED.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS 6
TO 7 FT ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO 06N.
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE PULSING GAP
WINDS, GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
PREVAIL. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODERATE N
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, WITH GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE GAP WINDS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED N
OF 22N AND W OF 120W, WHERE SEAS ARE 9 TO 12 FT IN NEW NW SWELL
N OF 25N AND 8 TO 9 FT ELSEWHERE TO 22N. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE,
BETWEEN 22N AND THE ITCZ, FRESH NE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL W OF 120W,
WHILE MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. SEAS
THERE ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT TO AROUND 11 FT W OF
132W IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ, MODERATE
SE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A MODEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE NE WATERS WEST AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TUE TO MAINTAIN A
ZONE OF FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ
AND 20N. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TRADE WIND ZONE, EXCEPT TO 11 OR 12 FT W OF 125W IN THE AREA OF
STRONGEST TRADES. NEW NW SWELL ENTERING THE NORTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS EAST OF 130W THROUGH MON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW WATERS MON
NIGHT AND SPREAD TO THE WATERS E OF 120W BY WED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN TUE AND WED, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING LARGE NW SWELL INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN WATERS LATE WED, AND STRONG S TO SW WINDS NORTH OF
25N AND WEST OF 132W WED NIGHT INTO THU. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 15N BETWEEN
105W AND 120W THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ERA
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