977
AXPZ20 KNHC 160408
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 16 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N98W. THE ITCZ THEN
CONTINUES FROM 05N98W TO 05N120W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED NW OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 32N124W EXTENDS A RIDGE
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
NNE WINDS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS
SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW
SWELL ARE ONGOING N OF CABO SAN LAZARO WITH 5-7 FT SEAS OCCURRING
ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORES. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH FROM THE NW, EXCEPT FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE ALONG THE GULF. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION OF TEHUANTEPEC
ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN NW SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW MEXICAN
OFFSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD MODESTLY ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF CABO
CORRIENTES THROUGH MON. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WHILE TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER NW MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT MAINLY FRESH NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA INTO TUE MORNING. NW SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORE
WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TUE. NEW NW SWELL IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH PUNTA EUGENIA TUE NIGHT AND SUBSIDE N OF
CABO SAN LAZARO WED EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SUPPORT THE NEAR GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN
TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
THU MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS TO 7 FT ARE
LIKELY IN THIS AREA. MODERATE N WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA WITH SLIGHT SEAS. ELSEWHERE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH,
AND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE
AND SEAS SLIGHT TO MODERATE IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODERATE N WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF PANAMA EACH NIGHT
THROUGH WED AS LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE TROUGH, AWAY FROM THE GAP WIND
AREAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSSS THE
SUBTROPICAL WATERS, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS
TO 11 FT EXTENDING TO 131W. THE RIDGE IS ALSO FORCING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES IN THE TROPICAL WATERS W OF 115W WHERE SEAS ARE
8-11 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NE WATERS WEST AND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TUE TO MAINTAIN A ZONE
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 20N. SEAS OF
8 TO 10 FT WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE TRADE WIND ZONE,
EXCEPT TO 11 OR 12 FT W OF 125W IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW WATERS MON
NIGHT AND SPREAD TO THE WATERS E OF 120W BY WED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN TUE AND WED, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING LARGE NW SWELL INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN WATERS LATE WED, AND STRONG S TO SW WINDS NORTH OF
25N AND WEST OF 132W WED NIGHT INTO THU. FARTHER EAST, MODERATE
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 15N BETWEEN
105W AND 120W THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
RAMOS
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