152
AXPZ20 KNHC 161508
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 16 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 06N95W. THE ITCZ THEN
CONTINUES FROM 06N95W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N W OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED NW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 30N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NNE
WINDS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO ALONG WITH 8-10 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL.
FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE NE AND SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN NW SWELL.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH FROM THE
NW, EXCEPT FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE SEAS ARE
TO 6 FT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
MEANDER BETWEEN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLIES N OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH TUE
EVENING. NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS
THAN 8 FT BY TUE MORNING. NEW NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
PUNTA EUGENIA TUE NIGHT AND SUBSIDE N OF CABO SAN LAZARO THU
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS THIS EVENING AND TO GENTLE
TO MODERATE TUE. OTHERWISE, A PREVALENT SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GAP WIND EVENT IN
TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING GALE FORCE WINDS BY
THU MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE PULSING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
BEING FORCED BY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
SAME RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS IS FORCING MODERATE N
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WHERE SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE.
ELSEWHERE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND SEAS MODERATE TO 6 FT IN
SW SWELL, EXCEPT N OF THE GALAPAGOS WHERE THERE IS NORTHERLY
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE, WINDS
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL REACH GENTLE TO
MODERATE SPEEDS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSSS THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS, WHICH IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES
ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT EXTENDING TO 130W. THE RIDGE IS
ALSO FORCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE TROPICAL
WATERS W OF 117W WHERE SEAS ARE 8-11 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND N OF THE ITCZ E OF 117W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
TO 10 FT WILL PREVAIL IN THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS BETWEEN ADJACENT WATERS
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. WINDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS BY WED, AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NEW NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW WATERS WED EVENING.
ASIDE FROM LARGE NW SWELL, STRONG S TO SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP N
OF 25N AND WEST OF 132W WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON FRI WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA ADJACENT WATERS, THUS CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 29N AND VERY
ROUGH SEAS TO 28 FT THAT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND.
ERA
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