914
AXPZ20 KNHC 162110
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 16 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 06N99W. THE ITCZ THEN
CONTINUES FROM 06N99W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N W OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB CENTERED W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
NEAR 29N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. WITH
THIS, MODERATE NNE WINDS PREVAIL N OF CABO SAN LAZARO, ALONG
WITH 8-9 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL. FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE NE
AND SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN NW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS
ARE MODERATE TO FRESH FROM THE NW, EXCEPT FOR STRONG WINDS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE SEAS ARE TO 6 FT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION OF
TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW MEXICAN
OFFSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
MEANDER BETWEEN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT PULSING MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLIES N OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH TUE EVENING.
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT
BY TUE MORNING. NEW NW SWELL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH PUNTA
EUGENIA TUE NIGHT AND SUBSIDE N OF CABO SAN LAZARO THU MORNING.
FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH
TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS THIS EVENING AND TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE TUE. LOOKING AHEAD, A GAP WIND EVENT IN THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS BY THU MORNING, CONTINUING
THROUGH SAT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NE WINDS ARE PULSING TO STRONG AT NIGHT ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION BEING FORCED BY A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE N WINDS ARE ALSO PULSING IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA, WHERE SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS, WINDS
ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND SEAS MODERATE TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL, EXCEPT
N OF THE GALAPAGOS WHERE THERE IS NORTHERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH MODERATE SEAS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA THROUGH FRI. WINDS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS WILL REACH GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICAL WATERS, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS
TO 10 FT EXTENDING TO 120W. THE RIDGE IS ALSO FORCING AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE TROPICAL WATERS W OF 115W WHERE
SEAS ARE 8-11 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF
THE ITCZ AND N OF THE ITCZ E OF 115W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
TO 10 FT WILL PREVAIL IN THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS BETWEEN ADJACENT WATERS
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. WINDS WILL ALSO
DIMINISH TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS BY WED, AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NEW NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW WATERS WED EVENING.
A REINFORCING FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON FRI WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA ADJACENT WATERS, THUS CREATING A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 29N
AND VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 28 FT THAT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND.
ERA
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