694
AXPZ20 KNHC 171006
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 17 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N90W TO
06N100W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 07N112W TO 07N125W
TO 06N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
NEAR 31N129W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE RELATED GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, ALONG WITH 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS IN NORTHWEST SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THE
WATERS FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH IN SPEEDS AND
NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION, EXCEPT FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
GULF WHERE SEAS ARE TO 6 FT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH
SEAS TO 8 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED
SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH THAT IS MEANDERING
BETWEEN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS N
OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
OFFSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE TUE
MORNING. NEW NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH PUNTA
EUGENIA TUE NIGHT AND SUBSIDE N OF CABO SAN LAZARO THU MORNING.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND BE AT MOSTLY MODERATE SPEEDS STARTING ON THU.
STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE GAP WINDS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY THU
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PRESENT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, AND
A TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA, WHERE SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS,
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THERE, EXCEPT NORTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE
NORTHERLY SWELL IS PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI, THEN BE AT GENTLE SPEEDS AFTERWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N129W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
WATERS, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO
AROUND 9 FT REACHING TO NEAR 120W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE FOUND TO ITS SOUTH IS
SUSTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS WEST
OF ABOUT 119W, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ E OF
115W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MOSTLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEAS
TO 10 FT WILL BE PRESENT WEST OF ABOUT 125W THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE
CHANGES LITTLE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA ON WED, PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND THE LEADING EDGE OF A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST
SWELL. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON FRI WHEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA ADJACENT
WATERS, THUS CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NORTH OF 29N AND VERY ROUGH SEAS TO NEAR 24
FT THAT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD NEAR 30N DURING THE WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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