175
AXPZ20 KNHC 171603
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 17 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY THU
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE, SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N81W TO 06N93W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 06N 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 80 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 107W
AND 121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
NEAR 32N128W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE RELATED GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, ALONG WITH 6 TO 8 FT
SEAS IN NORTHWEST SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THE
WATERS FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH IN SPEEDS AND
NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT, EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL GULF WHERE SEAS ARE TO 6 FT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION OF TEHUANTEPEC
ALONG WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN
OFFSHORE ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WHILE A TROUGH MEANDERS OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT PULSING MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORE WATERS BEFORE SUBSIDING TO
LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE THIS MORNING. NEW NORTHWEST SWELL IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH PUNTA EUGENIA TONIGHT AND SUBSIDE N OF CABO
SAN LAZARO THU MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SPEEDS WED NIGHT, AND BE AT MOSTLY MODERATE SPEEDS STARTING ON
THU. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY THU
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PRESENT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, AND
A TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA, WHERE SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS,
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL, EXCEPT NORTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
WHERE NORTHERLY SWELL IS PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI, THEN BE AT GENTLE SPEEDS AFTERWARD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 32N128W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
WATERS, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS TO
AROUND 9 FT REACHING TO NEAR 120W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE FOUND TO ITS SOUTH IS SUSTAINING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS WEST OF ABOUT
123W, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 115W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MOSTLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEAS
TO 10 FT WILL BE PRESENT WEST OF ABOUT 123W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WED AS THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE CHANGES
LITTLE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE AREA ON WED, PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS, AND ALSO TO BE PRECEDED BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A NEW SET
OF NORTHWEST SWELL. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON FRI
WHEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO BAJA
CALIFORNIA ADJACENT WATERS, THUS CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NORTH OF 28N AND
VERY ROUGH SEAS TO NEAR 23 FT THAT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD NEAR
30N THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KRV
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