921
AXPZ20 KNHC 172151
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 17 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2151 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING:
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. A A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. PLEASE, SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N93W, WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS BEYOND 07N 140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 107W AND
121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
NEAR 32N127W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE RELATED GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, ALONG WITH 5 TO 7 FT
SEAS IN NORTHWEST SWELL. MAINLY GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THE WATERS
FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH IN SPEEDS AND NORTHWEST
IN DIRECTION WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION OF TEHUANTEPEC
ALONG WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN OFFSHORE
ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WHILE A TROUGH MEANDERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. NEW NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH PUNTA
EUGENIA LATE TONIGHT AND SUBSIDE N OF CABO SAN LAZARO THU
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS WED NIGHT,
AND BE AT MOSTLY MODERATE SPEEDS STARTING ON THU. WHILE, GENTLE
OR WEAKER WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUN. STRONG TO NEAR GALE- FORCE GAP
WINDS ONGOING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PULSING TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PRESENT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, AND
A TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA,
WHERE SEAS REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS, SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND SEAS ARE TO 5 FT IN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PULSE IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PULSING TO FRESH
SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH SUN. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI, THEN MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 32N127W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THIS HIGH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL
WATERS, WHICH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS
WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG WITH SEAS TO AROUND 8
FT REACHING TO NEAR 120W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE FOUND TO ITS SOUTH IS SUSTAINING FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS WEST OF ABOUT 123W,
WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 115W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MOSTLY FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEAS
TO 10 FT WILL BE PRESENT WEST OF ABOUT 123W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WED AS THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE CHANGES
LITTLE. HOWEVER, PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE ITCZ TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA ON WED,
PRECEDED BY FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND ALSO TO BE
PRECEDED BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A NEW SET OF NORTHWEST SWELL. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON FRI WHEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA ADJACENT
WATERS, THUS CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NORTH OF 28N AND VERY ROUGH SEAS TO NEAR 23
FT THAT WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD NEAR 30N THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KRV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page